Don't Panic!
Election Day is Nine Months Away
Last week, a special counsel released a report saying President Joe Biden had done nothing wrong in relation to classified documents found in his possession. The counsel, Robert Hur, also went way, way, way, out of his way to editorialize about the president’s mental acuity.
The feeding frenzy began among the media and political elites. The New York Times had six stories about the report on the front page of its website. What will Democrats do? What will independent voters say? How will Republicans attack?
Breathlessness all around!
Then on Saturday, former President Donald Trump (R-Putin’s Dacha) said he was fine with Russia attacking America’s NATO allies.
And just like that, Trump set off yet another firestorm with his mouth, pushing a bullshit report about the sitting (sane, decent, competent, normal, pro-democracy) president further down the page.
(NOTE to Media: I don’t want to see anymore stories about how ‘talented' Trump’s campaign team is. Unless and until they can get him to be less nuts, less authoritarian, or to shut up, they’re not in charge of shit. END NOTE.)
This is a long campaign. Nine more months. The pro-democracy coalition will have good days and bad days. The Trump campaign will have many more bad days than good. It is easy, and even understandable, to live and die by every poll, tweet, post, blog, article, editorial, op-ed, and ‘news analysis’ that comes out indicating why Joe Biden has no hope of being re-elected.
It’s all horse-hockey. Today, tomorrow, and next week, it is much better to be President of the United States.
The other guy? He’s the one whose base is shrinking daily (actuarial tables don’t lie,) can’t keep his lips off Putin’s ass, who’s campaign is spending millions of dollars A MONTH on legal fees, and who is likely to go on trial in coming weeks for inciting a failed coup in the hopes of subverting democracy and the will of the American people.
Will the next nine months be easy? No. Will the election be close? Yes. But there are a few things we can and must remember in the next 265 days.
As I’ve written previously, Trump’s electoral math is very difficult. His ceiling is 45-46%. Knowing this he must grow his base, most likely by trying to juice evangelical turnout.
In kowtowing further to Christian nationalists (he’ll yell ‘I killed Roe’ 67,000 times) he will further alienate and animate female and younger voters, plus those millions of girl dads who don’t want Trump or any of his creeps near their daughters.
Trump’s honesty* about Russia attacking NATO pushes Republicans who care about national security away from him. These are the same GOP voters who voted for Nikki Haley in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. They remember the Soviet Union, didn’t like the Russians during the Cold War and don’t like them now, either. *This descriptor of Trump only applies to Putin and other authoritarians.
Without the likes of Robert Hur, No Labels, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, Cornell West, Doc, Dopey, and Sneezy on the ballot, Trump couldn’t siphon off enough votes to compete with Biden.
For Democrats this will be a new experience: The main stream media? Forget about it. Republicans have won for years in spite of what national news outlets said about them or ‘liberal bias’ in the media. Why are they covering Trump so much? Because he drives clicks. Until and unless the media figures out its profit model, they’ll go for the easiest, cheapest content: Trump fits that to a tee.
The special counsel’s report is a stark reminder, though: Republicans understand the nature of power, how to use it, and do so shamelessly. As soon as Attorney General Merrick Garland decided to play by a set of rules that only work when everyone is on board, Hur had the opportunity to take swipe at the president.
Democrats, in my observations, are often not comfortable using the power they have. The Hur choice was one. Conversely, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi understand exactly the nature and use of power during the summer of 2022 when she formed the Select Committee on January 6th. Be more like Pelosi and less like Garland.
In the US, elections are largely binary choices. The outcome is zero-sum, though. Only one person wins. In the next nine months, we will be tested - politically, strategically, and emotionally. The toll it exerts on all of us will be great. If we exhaust ourselves with panic attacks over every piece of bad news, we won’t make it to Election Day.
The depth and breadth of the pro-democracy coalition is growing everyday. I have said this before and I will say it again: When fighting as part of a coalition, we don’t have to agree on everything. We only have to agree on one thing. Our goal, and all the objectives we must meet to achieve it, is to ensure Donald J. Trump and his Christian nationalist, authoritarian, gangster-like movement never again takes control of the White House.
If we can all agree on that, lock arms and march forward together, we will win overwhelmingly this fall. But cannot and must not panic. Cool heads and steady resolve will carry the day.
Onward!
News and Notes:
Please check out the second episode of my special podcast series on the rise of Christian nationalism, featuring The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta.
If you haven’t yet listened to my conversation with the incomparable Jeff Sharlet, you can do so below.
Every time I read one of your posts I sigh a sigh of relief. I get wound up reading "the news" and opinions of political "experts", then I read something from you (and other TLP writers) and feel sane again. Your writing brings me up to an elevation where I can see more objectively and shake off the muck of reading opinions. I'm desperately trying to let my breath go and relax into the next 265 days. Thanks for the breath.
Keep calm and carry on. This should be the first, second, and third thoughts of all Dem supporters between now and November. It worked for us Brits in WWII; it will work for you too. And Galen is right, you have to fight because Trump is so, so vulnerable. Just look at Charles' comment below. That will work. Attack as hard the GOP does. There's no point wielding a banana in a knife fight.