Donald Trump is Under Incredible Pressure (and He Can't Handle It)
As a rocket races skyward, it encounters “Max Q” - the moment of maximum stress on the spacecraft. The speed, velocity, and G forces are working to tear the machine apart. This is the place that Donald Trump and his campaign now find themselves: Internal and external pressure and ramping up, and the structure is weak.
This is also the point where we must take advantage of his weakness. (I’ve included a DIY Manual at the end.)
Trump is in trouble. More trouble now than before voters started voting. Perhaps only Trump could be weaker politically and also a presumptive nominee. No one in Trumpland believes that they possess any tangible head of steam in the context of the General Election.
The current and soon-to-be-defendant aside, Trump’s support structures are withering.
The GOP is cracking. They don’t have a broad voter coalition, they have a monolith. Like an iceberg in a warming sea, it’s been shrinking year by year. Cracks are beginning to form, too, allowing for chunks to calve off.
We as the pro-democracy coalition have a huge opportunity now - and in the lead up to the South Carolina primary to keep maximum pressure on Trump, national Republicans, and their core voting blocs and to push his campaign back far enough so that he can’t easily make up lost ground before November
Trump’s people know this. They’re professionals can read toplines, cross tabs, and focus group reports. They know Trump has no ability to grow his base and no ability to draw soft Republicans and independents to his side. Conversely, his base will demand only more purity from Trump - he will oblige them.
Donald is tired. His schtick is tired. His base is tired. The party is older, whiter, and more male than when we took it over in 2016. Meanwhile, the country now boasts 40 million voters under 30, of which 45% are non-white.
His health and energy have faded as noted in the many “he’s sick and his rallies are shrinking” stories. It’s so bad even the national press corps has to write about it.
This is borne out by the results out of Iowa and NH. He’s capturing 50% of Republicans. That is not consolidation. That is a shrinking, crystallized base. He owns the toxic radioactive core of MAGA, the rest aren’t convinced. Let me repeat: Trump is an incredibly weak Geneal Election candidate.
As the prosessionals attempt to reassert themselves, their caged monster will only grow worse. The idea of “control” is like trying to tame a meth-addled wolverine. You can try, but it’s going to mangle everything (you included) in its path.
If that wasn’t bad enough for them, the likes of Corey Lewandowski and Steve Bannon are texting and calling Trump. As they ramp him up, and his rage becomes incadescent, everyone around him becomes a target.
He trusts no one to begin with, and takes no responsiblity for himself, so the staff around him become the scapegoats. Dodging errant ketchup bottles is not what a lot of those people signed up for.
On Tuesday night in New Hampshire, Donald Trump was a sore winner. He didn’t get the margin he wanted or expected. Nikki Haley’s refusal to drop out enraged him. In his speech, he insulted Haley’s dress, her intelligence, and hinted at opposition research that would embarass her.
Here’s the thing, though: Nikki Haley isn’t Hillary Clinton. For a meaningful number of Republican voters, Haley represents a return to the party they liked; of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. They’ve never liked Trump but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton in 2016. In 2020, many voted for Biden or left the top of the ticket blank (like 50,000 Wisconsin Republicans did four years ago.)
Trump’s gratuitous attacks on women are nothing new. With Haley, though, he’s insulting a legitimate alternative to his power within the GOP. Remember the monolith: Trump cannot lose any of these people.
As the headpiece of the party, Trump is creating critical gaps for national Republicans, too.
This week, Punch Bowl reported that Mitch McConnell said Senate Republicans can’t make a deal on Ukraine or the border because Trump wants to make immigration the centerpiece of his campaign this year. Given Mitch’s single-minded passion for being carried out of the Capitol, he doesn’t want to undercut Trump.
Side note: Mitch McConnell is the barnyard equivalent of an old goat surrounded by rabid coyotes. Weak and defenseless, he’ll give the wild dogs whatever they want for just one more day.
The White House and Senate Democrats are willing to make a deal on the border. McConnell wants it. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Southern Baptist Convention) indicated a possibility of getting something done. But the Dear Leader has ordered them not to do something for good of the country to assist their orange deity’s quest to stay out of prison.
I want to reinforce this: The only reason Donald Trump is running for president is to stay out of prison. That’s it.
President Biden, the White House, and his campaign should be all over McConnell for this. They should be calling out Republicans in target districts (👋 Don Bacon) for (again) allowing terrible people to put their own interests ahead of the country.
Those same ‘moderate’ Republicans that voted for Johnson, and probably a national abortion ban of some sort, will not decry Trump’s desire to imprison his political opponents, deport all Muslims, or put homeless people in camps. Quite the campaign platform…
So here’s what all of us in the pro-democracy coalition should be doing:
Never Trump Republican groups and leaders should be highlighting Trump’s attacks on Haley with their audiences in target Electoral College states. Throw in Trump’s love for Russia while you’re at it.
Groups like the Lincoln Project will drive the internal pressure inside Trump’s cranium and his campaign apparatus. (👋 Brad Parscale.)
Pro-choice groups should be running video of Trump screaming “I killed Roe.” to every urban, suburban, exurban women in the country. You don’t need to editorialize. Let his words speak for him.
Immigration advocates should be 100% behind President Biden and the White House in their attempts to bring meaningful reform and humane enforcement to the border. The Republicans don’t want a deal! Don’t let them get away with it.
Those in the faith community should be talking with your peers about how to show the faithless, godless nature of Trump’s campaign and the betrayal of the Christian nationalist movement to America’s founding principles.
Gen Z leaders should be reminding their peers of just who and what Trump is. He’s anti-woman, anti-education, anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, anti-environment, anti-choice. He’ll fuck up your future if you let him.
Experts on authoritarianism should be relentless in their communication of the threat that Trump and his cronies represent. All day, every day, through every medium, tell the story of what happens if he returns. I’m happy to have folks on the Lincoln Project podcast to discuss.
The Biden campaign should be matching this with reminders of the historic nature of the president’s first three years in office. He’s been asked to hold the world together, bring stability to the homefront, and return to decency to the White House. He’s done all that and more.
We have a HUGE opportunity here, gang. Let’s not waste it! Trump is weak, on his back foot, and ready to topple. Let’s give him the nudge the country, the world, and the future needs.
News and Notes:
Check out the latest Lincoln Project podcast featuring
straight out of New Hampshire. Follow, download, rate ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Thank you, thank you, thank you. As a mental health professional, your grasp of his personality disorder (and what can cause him to decompensate further) is well-informed. As a progressive democrat, I’m still not hyper-partisan, but I am an ardent supporter of democracy. As an ordained minister, I tread lightly, but try to lift up the highest ideals of our faith (acts of compassion and mercy), hoping others will connect the dots. As an alarmed human, your organization will get my support!
You have inspired me. I have been donating money to the Democrats, but now am going to add my service in the form of volunteering to register new voters.