You Want A Third Party, Huh?
I've Been There. I've Done That. Here's Why I Don't Do It Anymore
Every couple of years the idea of the “Third Party” in American politics rears its impotent head. This white whale, this unicorn, always appears to be the idea that will save us from a rotten and corrupt political duopoly and finally give voters the opportunity to make their voices heard. This week, it’s none other than Elon Musk (I-Olympus Mons) declaring he’ll start the “American Party.”
Mr. Musk, I’ve done it. It’s not hard. It’s damn-near impossible.*
*This should not be taken to mean I like the two-party system. It’s broken beyond repair and those that control the system care not-a-whit.
SAM I Am
Years ago, I was chief strategist for the Serve America Movement (SAM.) Over two years of work, wrangling, and endless discussion, we ran former Syracuse mayor Stephanie Miner in the 2018 New York gubernatorial race. She received the required 50,000 votes to qualify SAM as an official party.
Like clockwork, though, in 2019, the Democratically controlled legislature changed the law to require all parties to receive 130,000 for president in 2020 (a race in which SAM did not wish to participate.) SAM lost its ballot access in 2021 and merged with Andrew Yang’s Forward Party a year later.
(In 2019, I also worked briefly on Starbucks founder Howard Schultz’s operation to explore an independent presidential bid.)
Two’s Company, Three’s Not Allowed
Though the Founders didn’t want ‘factionalism’ to enter American political life, it was all but predestined. At some point (right at the start) like-minded partisans were going to band together to nominate, promote, support, and elect candidates to local, state, and federal office.
For most of America’s early life, the Democrats and the Whigs split the political spoils. As the Civil War approached, the Whigs, made up of northern business owners and southern slaveholders, disintegrated. The Republican Party took its place in 1854 on a platform of restricting slavery. Just six years later the GOP elected its first president, a man named Abraham Lincoln.
We’ve been in the thrall of these two parties since then - nearly 200 years on. Whatever a partisan might say about ensuring ‘two healthy political parties’ they’re never going to make it easier for legitimate competition to rise. In 2026, ask a partisan Secretary of State candidate whether they’ll make it easier for new parties to form. Then watch them tap dance.
First Past the Post
In the US, a candidate isn’t required to achieve a 50% +1 majority to win an election. They simply have to get more votes (a plurality) than the next candidate. This is called “first past the post.”
Let’s say an America Party candidate runs for the US Senate in Texas. (We’ll come to the logistics of a primary further down.)
On Election Day, the Republican receives 40%, the Democrat receives 30% and Elon’s guy gets 30%, the GOP nominee still wins. Despite 60% of voters picking someone else, based on our rules, he’s going to Washington.
NOTE: Some states, such as Georgia, have runoff elections between the top-two finishers. But before you get too excited, this was simply to ensure a white candidate (up until Rev. Warnock) would win.
One New Party? No, 50 New Parties
The US Constitution enumerates that states determine the method and timing of their elections. This has been interpreted to mean the each our 50 states may determine how political parties may gain ‘ballot access’ that is, the right to be declared a recognizes party and offer candidates for office.
It doesn’t stop there, though. Some states have ‘minor’ and ‘major’ party designations based on how many votes their candidates have received. A minor party may have different rules and requirements than that of its big brothers.
In Utah, where I live, forming a political party is little more than filing the appropriate paperwork and naming officers.
From Ballotpedia, below is how a new party in California must form and what it must do to maintain its ballot access:
You see, it’s not enough simply to spend all that time and money qualifying a new party. You must consistently garner a certain number of votes to have your party recognized.
In other states, such as Iowa, you can only create a new party by first running a candidate for governor or president that receives at least 2% of the vote. Once that happens, the organization may then file a new party within a year of the previous election. However, they must maintain their party’s 2% threshold every gubernatorial or presidential election.
Have a headache yet?
We’re just getting started.
What Do We Do Now?
So you’ve filed your paperwork. Or gathered your signatures. Or you’ve held your convention. You’ve run your candidate and they’ve received the required number of votes. Now what?
Now the work really begins. A political party is not simply a name on a voter’s ballot. It is both a political and financial (non-profit) entity. It requires statewide officers, typically a chair, vice chair, and treasurer. Once in operation, the party must abide by its states campaign finance laws, disclosures, and filing requirements.
The moment SAM qualified in New York, I started getting calls from political consultants asking if we’d be willing to run their candidates on our ballot line (New York utilizes fusion voting, in which a candidate may appear as the nominee of multiple parties) We weren’t.
In a state like Utah, Musk could dump as much money as he wanted to into the party, but why would he? Same with Texas, where candidates may accept unlimited personal contributions. Again, why would he let someone else spend his money?
It also must fill its ballot lines or someone else might. Once the party exists, it belongs to everyone and no one. When Elon founds the America Party in Arizona, anyone who wants to, based on the party’s rules, may file under its name for say, the 46th State Senate District.*
*The feckless No Labels operation did successfully keep down-ballot candidates off its line in 2024 but only by saying it would only field candidates for president and vice president. The Arizona Secretary of State, Adrian Fontes, disagreed with the ruling, saying it would allow party bosses to decide who could and couldn’t run for public office.
2028?
Perhaps Musk is looking forward to the next presidential election. Third party candidates haven’t had any tangible success since Ross Perot’s bid in 1992 (and even that didn’t garner any Electoral Votes.) But a combination of state parties and an independent candidate could provide Musk with the pathway to disrupt the traditional two-party contest. Even if he chose only to field candidates in certain states, he could theoretically throw the election to one party or the other (see First Past the Post) above.
The last third party candidate to garner any Electoral Votes was George Wallace in 1968 and that was solely on the back of his segregation message. Strom Thurmond ran on the Dixiecrat ticket in 1948 and won the old confederacy.
Who Knows Anymore
Given that the US Supreme Court has agreed to hear a campaign finance-related case, all of the financial headaches I’ve described above may be out the window. However, for someone with Musk’s…personality, it’s hard to see how he’d be willing to had over that much control to a bunch of people he doesn’t know and raise money for candidates he’ll never meet.
I don’t think it’s possible, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try.
Of course, when I tried it, I didn’t have $400 billion at my back.
News and Notes:
If you’re watching the news out of Texas as I am, I hope you’ll consider helping out in any way you can.
I’ll be on Substack Live(!) with
at 11 am Eastern on Monday, July 7th. Click here to tune in.In case you missed my terrific conversation with
and check it out on YouTube.
With one weird hack, Elon Musk could have a third party to run after Donald Trump and MAGA. Not the America Party, but the Libertarian Party. He could buy his way in and run it like Twitter to wreak his vengeance on Trump. That'd be fun. https://erichensal.substack.com/p/buy-the-libertarians-elon
Our system of voting ("first past the post") makes third parties nothing more than spoilers. Which is what Elon's party will be. But I do worry about whose chances his party will spoil... Everyone is saying Elon's party will cut into the MAGA vote. But third parties often cut into the "anti-incumbent" vote - and in 2028, the "anti-incumbent" will be the Democratic candidate. Voters who will say "anyone but Trump" will have an option other than the Dem - not an option that can win, but an option that will syphon away votes from that Dem. Of course, all of this presumes that Elon doesn't get bored with politics by then. Three months is about the length of his attention span.