With one weird hack, Elon Musk could have a third party to run after Donald Trump and MAGA. Not the America Party, but the Libertarian Party. He could buy his way in and run it like Twitter to wreak his vengeance on Trump. That'd be fun. https://erichensal.substack.com/p/buy-the-libertarians-elon
Our system of voting ("first past the post") makes third parties nothing more than spoilers. Which is what Elon's party will be. But I do worry about whose chances his party will spoil... Everyone is saying Elon's party will cut into the MAGA vote. But third parties often cut into the "anti-incumbent" vote - and in 2028, the "anti-incumbent" will be the Democratic candidate. Voters who will say "anyone but Trump" will have an option other than the Dem - not an option that can win, but an option that will syphon away votes from that Dem. Of course, all of this presumes that Elon doesn't get bored with politics by then. Three months is about the length of his attention span.
When are they going to start running in local races? When are they going to start trying to make a difference in county races and state legislature races?
Because right now, Jill Stein and a few others come out like cicadas every four years and then disappear.
Musk is creating chaos and Trump thrives in chaos. Let’s assume Musk is sincere and will attack Trump and the Dems equally. Trump’s 35-40% will ride and die with him. Nothing will move them. Meanwhile, Musk will cut into support for Dems unless he recruits a MAGA crank to run like RFK Jr. or MTG.
I knew third parties didn't thrive. But I had no idea of all the "math" percentages they faced. Yep! did make my head spin. Looking and hoping for new/good leadership in any shape or form just gets harder and harder. A close family member voted for Ross Perot. Says now she'll never vote for a 3rd party candidate, because it was a waist. Unfortunately, she may not vote for any Presidential candidate. Ugh. That drives me nuts.
I understand that. I’m reaching for the slim possibility the electorate might hear something differently. But then, god knows what they’ll do with it?? 😳🤷♂️
I appreciate your perspective on this, having lived long enough to see third party candidates throw a number of elections in directions most of us lived to regret. I do wonder if ranked choice voting would at least even the odd of having the party machine seem like it has far more power than the voters.
Good question. I think the political reform movement has potential, but at this moment it wants to get along with the two party system. Instead, they should act like the political rebels they are.
RCV isn't good enough against vote-splitting (among other things) and requires too much strategy. Approval or STAR voting let you choose the safe mainstream candidate and the new party one with equal weight. A critical difference. Congress has some purview for Representative and Senatorial elections. It's infuriating that Raskin, Beyer et al bake RCV into their bills and not a list of choices for wary states!
With one weird hack, Elon Musk could have a third party to run after Donald Trump and MAGA. Not the America Party, but the Libertarian Party. He could buy his way in and run it like Twitter to wreak his vengeance on Trump. That'd be fun. https://erichensal.substack.com/p/buy-the-libertarians-elon
Our system of voting ("first past the post") makes third parties nothing more than spoilers. Which is what Elon's party will be. But I do worry about whose chances his party will spoil... Everyone is saying Elon's party will cut into the MAGA vote. But third parties often cut into the "anti-incumbent" vote - and in 2028, the "anti-incumbent" will be the Democratic candidate. Voters who will say "anyone but Trump" will have an option other than the Dem - not an option that can win, but an option that will syphon away votes from that Dem. Of course, all of this presumes that Elon doesn't get bored with politics by then. Three months is about the length of his attention span.
It's the uncertainty that the two parties hate the most about the concept.
It's the possibility that third parties are being paid to rat fuck the election. . .
And here's my complaint about third parties.
When are they going to start running in local races? When are they going to start trying to make a difference in county races and state legislature races?
Because right now, Jill Stein and a few others come out like cicadas every four years and then disappear.
That's not governance - that's showboating.
Musk is creating chaos and Trump thrives in chaos. Let’s assume Musk is sincere and will attack Trump and the Dems equally. Trump’s 35-40% will ride and die with him. Nothing will move them. Meanwhile, Musk will cut into support for Dems unless he recruits a MAGA crank to run like RFK Jr. or MTG.
Thiel hasn’t entered the chat, yet
Thiel has some really dark views. Scary times ahead as he amasses all our data through Palantir.
I knew third parties didn't thrive. But I had no idea of all the "math" percentages they faced. Yep! did make my head spin. Looking and hoping for new/good leadership in any shape or form just gets harder and harder. A close family member voted for Ross Perot. Says now she'll never vote for a 3rd party candidate, because it was a waist. Unfortunately, she may not vote for any Presidential candidate. Ugh. That drives me nuts.
I’m open to third party if for no other reason than it changes election dynamics.
That's what most voters say when asked. Then when they're asked if they'd vote for a third party candidate they say, "no."
The prisoner of FPTP's dilemma. Nobody trusts the other prisoners enough to make a choice that benefits all of them.
Does being a destructive sociopath change the dynamics of third part election voting?
I understand that. I’m reaching for the slim possibility the electorate might hear something differently. But then, god knows what they’ll do with it?? 😳🤷♂️
I appreciate your perspective on this, having lived long enough to see third party candidates throw a number of elections in directions most of us lived to regret. I do wonder if ranked choice voting would at least even the odd of having the party machine seem like it has far more power than the voters.
Good question. I think the political reform movement has potential, but at this moment it wants to get along with the two party system. Instead, they should act like the political rebels they are.
RCV isn't good enough against vote-splitting (among other things) and requires too much strategy. Approval or STAR voting let you choose the safe mainstream candidate and the new party one with equal weight. A critical difference. Congress has some purview for Representative and Senatorial elections. It's infuriating that Raskin, Beyer et al bake RCV into their bills and not a list of choices for wary states!
Your posts as well as others subscribed to don't show up in my notes/feed, although liking recent posts. Substack's chat gives nonsensical answers.
Good to know. @substack, any thoughts?