Trump's Rock and A Hard Place Campaign
Can't Go Right, Can't Go Left, Only Goes Down
If you have a child you’ll remember reading, chanting, singing We’re Going On A Bear Hunt to a not-sleepy-enough toddler.
We're going on a bear hunt! We're going to catch a big one! What a beautiful day! We're not scared!
Donald Trump is on a hunt, too. His quest, though, is for the unlikely electorate that will return him to the White House (so he can avoid jail and refill the family coffers.) Like the family in the book, Trump and his campaign have many obstacles to overcome.
He can’t go right of them, he can’t go left of them, he can’t hide from them, he’ll probably piss them off.
Dasha Burns from NBC News is up with a new article highlighting that Trump believes he needs to have someone moderate on abortion to serve as his vice presidential nominee. Given Republicans’ electoral shortcomings and outright bloodbaths since the Dobbs decision was released two years ago, this is a rare instance of Trump’s instincts appearing to work.
It’s also magical thinking.
First, let’s talk about who Trump is beholden to: The Evangelical Christian right. Whether he believes it or not, the Christian nationalist movement uses a garden claw to lead him around by the privates. They ARE the Republican base. They’re the reason Trump’s advisors convinced him to put Mike Pence (R-Purgatory) on the ticket in 2016.
Most evangelical leaders probably wouldn’t care if Trump chose someone “less” pro-life than him. They’re in it for the power and money just like their clydesdale. Their parishoners, though, the ones that fill the coffers each Sunday and show up to the polls won’t take kindly to a RINO on the ticket.
I heard last month that evangelical leaders know they have to boost the movement’s turnout, 81% for Trump in 2020, to 87% in 2024. That statistic is startling enough on its own. It’s an impossibility for Trump to win with anyone not washed in the blood of the Greg Lockes of the world.
The second reason this won’t work for Trump is directly related to the first. When in doubt, Trump always runs back to the base. They are the only ones there for him, day in and day out, regardless of the cheating, inhumanity, ugliness, racism, simping for Vladimir Putin…the list goes on.
Whatever ‘bump’ he might get among moderate Republicans and independents will be swept away on a wave when Trump gets ramped up about prosecuting women who have abortions, opening internment camps for migrants, or he finally admits to be in the employ of the Russian security services. The moderates will stay home or vote for Biden (the anti-vaxxers for RFJ, Jr. but that’s another column.)
The base is always there for Trump. They’ll never leave him, nor he them.
Then there’s the problem of Trump himself. He’s all over video taking credit for killing Roe v. Wade. He loves to ramp up rally crowds with boasts of “my Supreme Court” that outlawed abortion. Whomever he chooses for vice president, and whatever their stance on reproductive rights, the ticket won’t be able to overcome thousands of ads pointed at moderate suburban women in key Electoral College states.
The man simply can’t help himself. He loves the adoration of the faithful, only the faithful attend rallies, and say whatever is necessary to get them cheering.
(Hint to my Democratic friends: You should already be running clips of Trump 24/7/365 into digital.)
Lastly, where will Trump and Co. find this unicorn? Where out there is a moderate, female, pro-life (but not scarily so) Republican that 1) Trump deems attractive enough and 2) is willing to go along with all of the other insanity that comes along with standing next to a serial (insert crime, violation or moral transgression of your choice.)
Her name could have been Nikki Haley, but that’s not going to happen.
It bears repeating that the last person who had the job as Trump’s VP ended up running for his life, chased by an angry mob, urged on by a sitting president who, sitting in the White House, did nothing to call off his dogs. Who will take that offer?
Let’s not kid ourselves: There are probably a lot of people willing to take the gig, especially if they think Trump is headed for electoral disaster and they can juice their name ID, fundraising base, and political capital. There are no angels left in the Republican Party. They caught the last train for the coast years ago.
Before I go, a request to our friendly national press corps. Just because Donald Trump or his campaign say something about his ‘moderating’ on an issue, doesn’t make it true. In fact, everytime they say that, and you print it, Trump goes out and says something more bananas than he has before.
He’s not ‘recalibrating’ on the abortion issue; it’s his bread and butter. Saying that his campaign staff ‘have Trump under control’ is the equivalent of reporting that a car has seatbelts but you’ve chosen to let Toonces the Driving Cat get behind the wheel. Restraint or no, you’re headed for a disaster.
He can’t give up any of his performative insanity: It drives the rest of the outrage machine against the libs, women, individual liberty, and all the things MAGA detests. I know there is a desire to be ‘objective’ that doesn’t mean you have to reprint verbaitm what Chris and Susie say just becuase they say it.
For the next eight months, the Trump campaign will say they’re ‘appealing to moderates and independents.’ In the end, though, the pro-choice gambit won’t work and they’ll soon return to their tried and true: Fear. His campaign has never been about a better future, but a re-creating a darker, non-existent past. Don’t fall for the ‘kinder, gentler’ Trump. It’s never been real before, and it’s not real now.
We can only hope the more radical he becomes, moderates will flee, the rally last week in Rome Ga was reported by the local paper to have 4500 attendees, years prior his rally in the same town had 20,000 and was held at the regional airport. Hopeful, this recalibration of venues by the Trump team shows the cult devotees are shrinking in number.
As Amy Walter put it in a PBS Newshour interview after it became clear on election day, 2023, "when I talked to one Democrat who was doing a lot of work in Virginia this morning, this person told me that Republicans don't have a communications or a messaging problem. They have a problem problem."
(Link to read-worthy transcript: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/reproductive-rights-drive-wins-for-democrats-leaving-clues-for-future-elections )
Ohio made the then-seventh state to enshrine the right to access reproductive healthcare in its constitution. As reported, 11 states may follow suit with ballot initiatives this November.