REPOST: America's Dark Future :: A Preview (Now Our Reality)
The Brennan Center's Simulations Provide Essential Data...and Warnings
Author’s Note and Update: I posted this on August 3rd, 2024. As we’ve seen in the first month of Donald Trump’s new term, too much of what we learned is coming to fruition.
Earlier this year, I participated in The Democracy Futures Project; a set of simulations organized by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU. The question at hand? How would American institutions, elected officials, military leaders, and the country at large handle a re-elected Donald Trump, emboldened by the literal and figurative protection of the presidency, and spurred on by his gang of ideological freaks to take extreme action against various parts of American society.
I was asked to play one of the ideological freaks on the “Red Team.”
Old, Broken Guard Rails
The exercises provided a good approximation of how people in positions of influence and authority would conduct themselves when faced with an authoritarian president. Upon reflection, it’s important to remember that Trump is both a symptom and an accelerant.
He is the symptom of a largely broken political system, separated from individual Americans. His ability to take a baseball bat to Washington, DC is the downstream effect of our system of checks and balances fading to crass, base, partisanship. There was a time, not all that long ago, where a Member of Congress represented the Article I branch first, and their party second. Ensuring their Constitutional power position vis a vis the White House was essential to the proper functioning of government.
The likes of Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell help put paid to those traditions.
Likewise, the Supreme Court, acting a as purely ideological body as opposed to the ultimate arbiter of the law (with all its precedents,) have led us to a place where six justices have tossed the basic rights of hundreds of millions of Americans to pursue a political outcome that matches their ideological and cultural goals.
Trump also serves as gasoline for this fire as he and his cronies ignored (on a good day) and broke laws meant to keep our Constitutional framework operating. They didn’t care from 2017-2021 and they care less now. Remember: When authoritarians take (or retake) power they move quickly.
You can read my take on the beginning of another Trump term here.
Baby Seals
Part of my task as “Red Media” was to inject outrageous, inflammatory, and often untrue things into the simulation. I was given an iPad, but asked only to tweet every five minutes to avoid overwhelming the Blue and Non-Aligned Teams with information. I was both amused by this, and reminded that this is indeed a game, as MAGA media never stops, and doesn’t wait for the good guys to catch up.
Interestingly, part of the Brennan Center’s analysis of the exercises noted that when the Red Team pursued an ‘everywhere all the time’ strategy, the Blue Team was quickly overwhelmed.
The Blue Team’s immediate and consistent desire to play the game within the rules they understood was a massive handicap to their response. Op-Eds, lawsuits, and Congressional hearings made up the bulk of initial responses. A lack of leadership, no centralized strategy, and a misunderstanding their own coalition, made it difficult for the Blue Team to respond with any tangible effect. (Update: What does this sound like??)
The individuals representing the military, in particular, understood the rules of engagement, the Uniform Code of Military Justice, and posse comitatus laws that restrict the military’s use on American soil. They served as a consistent block to overwhelming “Trump’s” desire to move fast and break everything.
Expansive Executive Authority
In these exercises, and in reality, a President who wants to utilize federal power to prosecute a particular agenda, has most of the authority they need, even without the military. Invoking the Insurrection Act to quell unrest around a border crisis or mass deportation, was almost a no-brainer for the Red White House.
These simulations took place before the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity. Despite this, the federal judiciary regularly sided with the Executive in complaints brought by the Blue Team. (Update: Shocked!)
The federal government’s army of cops was readily augmented by the deputation of state and local authorities to assist with enforcement actions. In one instance, militia members were sworn in as Deputy US Marshals for the purposes taking on Blue Team activists at the border. (Update: Elon Musk’s security detail has been deputized by the Marshals Service.)
The Memory Hole
Second only to my concern about the Blue Team’s inability to get up to speed as events unfolded was how little the group remembered how much of what we were role-playing has already happened.
In 2020, Trump ordered Acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf to send officers into Portland, Oregon, for the purposes of ‘protecting federal property.’ Unmarked cops threw individual Americans into the back of vans
How can any of us forget Trump’s ‘photo op’ in front of St. John’s church that same summer? To allow for Trump and his minions to cross Pennsylvania Avenue, federal authorities pepper-sprayed peaceful protestors to clear them out.
We cannot and must not think of this as “happening” but “happening again.” Only the scope will be different, much larger, and much more destructive.
We Can Still Lose This
The last two weeks (like the last nine years) have been unlike anything I’ve seen in American politics. We’ve been disoriented, disjointed, jolted, and now energized. Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to generate incredible enthusiasm, energy, and money is incredible. Her poll numbers against Trump are climbing as the felon’s campaign fumbles.
We must not become complacent in any way. We have more than 90 days to Election Day and they will be the longest in political memory while flying by us (think parenthood.) In this time, pro-democracy forces must do the work on the ground of talking to voters, convincing them to put party aside for America, and getting them to show up to vote.
Meanwhile, we must all do what we can to shake our fellow Americans out of the torpor in which they live. What we learned in these simulations is yet another signal, another warning, another nod to history: We cannot expect that Trump and company will do anything less than the worst they can think of. MAGA’s flight from Project 2025 is a fiction created for the benefit of soft Republican and independent voters. Make no mistake: If Trump wins, THAT is the agenda.
Let’s fight like with country depends on it; because it does.
News and Notes:
Join The Union! Get involved, people! Less than 100 days to go! Join us, and tens of thousands of your fellow Americans in the fight for democracy. We have more than 100 partner organizations providing nearly 2,000 volunteer opportunities and we need YOUR help!
Watch this Interview: I join Meidas Touch to discuss Trump and Vance’s failing and flailing campaign. Tune in, wont’ you?
Read This Book: Autocracy, Inc. by the inimitable Anne Applebaum. It’s short, it’s to the point, and it both teaches, and reminds you of what we’re seeing with Trump here at home, and so many others around the world. You can find Anne’s book here.
Awww…That’s too, bad…Read this article by Puck’s Tara Palmeri about Trouble in Trumplandia. It warms the heart to see it. Read Tara’s piece here.
Where is everyone? But thanks Reed for all you do.