January 21st, 2025
As we remembered the third anniversary of Trump’s insurrection this weekend, it was reported that Dan Scavino, Donald Trump’s Twitter alter-ego and former caddie had been interviewed by Special Counsel Jack Smith in relation to the 1/6 attacks.
In case you need a primer on the kind of person Scavino is, Jenna Ellis (she of the parking ticket legal profession) testified in Georgia, "And he said to me, you know, in a kind of excited tone, ‘Well, we don’t care, and we’re not going to leave…The boss is not going to leave under any circumstances. We are just going to stay in power.’"
During his interview, Scavino confirmed the reports of others that Trump sat in the Oval Office dining room watching the insurrection play out on live television. When Trump was informed of then-Vice President Mike Pence being moved to a secure location, Scavino testified Trump responded, “So what?”
None of this is new news. It is a reminder though, of what we’re facing 300 days from now. Let’s fast-forward, then not to Election Day, 2024, but 380 days from today.
Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump is once again sitting in the Oval Office. Well-done steak, French fries, and Diet Coke in front of him on the table, he’s not watching video of the Capitol, but instead live footage of black-clad federal troops putting down peaceful protests.
Just outside the White House, Trump and his bandits can hear concussion grenades and tear gas canisters as, hooded, unidentified Federal officers clash with American citizens on the streets of Washington, DC.
As his first act as president, Trump immediately invoked the Insurrection Act of 1807, just as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 suggested. Just after noon on January 20th, Trump’s allies in Republican states had agreed to allow their national guard units to be federalized. Troops from Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota are on their way to Washington State and Oregon moments after Trump signed the order.
Across the country, American soldiers from conservative states are headed to large cities in the interest of ‘public safety.’ The Pentagon, now led by an ‘acting’ Secretary of Defense and friendly officers await orders to deploy active-duty units. For now, they have ordered all bases to be closed to outside traffic and for troops to remain in place.
Trump hasn’t yet decided what he’ll do with them. He’s not classically intelligent, but his instincts tell him the armed forces may balk at turning their weapons on fellow citizens. He leaves them bottled up.
Governors from states such as California, New York, Arizona, and Illinois ask federal judges to block Trump’s invocation of the Insurrection Act. Several judges do. From the White House, the spokesperson said Trump will not be derelict in his duty to keep America safe from Antifa and Communists who would overthrow a free and fair election.
As night falls on January 21st, fires light up the skies of cities across America.
The rule of law breaks down as the violence meted out by local, state, and federal law enforcement brings more people to the streets. In response, the Department of Homeland Security and the Justice Department deploy more officers. The cycle of violence begins to spiral out of control as Donald Trump sits in the White House and smiles at what he’s done.
These events sound like something out of a bad dystopian novel. Hopefully, that’s all they’ll ever be. Given what Trump and his allies have promised, how can we be sure some version of the events above wouldn’t play out immediately after the beginning of a second Trump presidency?
News articles covering what Trump’s allies have said they’d like to do, mass deportation for example, always reference the courts. Who will stop a Trump White House? A district judge? An appellate court? The Supreme Court? Those checks on executive power only work if the president is willing to abide by the rule of law.
During his debate against Joe Biden in the fall of 2020, Trump asked the Proud Boys “to stand back and stand by.” They did. When January 6th dawned, they and many groups like them were on hand to participate in the worst attack on American democracy since April 1860.
Though many of these groups’ leaders are now in prison, Trump would pardon them and ask for their help in ‘keeping the peace,’ much like the Brown Shirts of the SA a century ago in Germany.
Vigilantism against elected officials, political opponents, and neighbors would be in the realm of possibility. Professor Bob Pape of the University of Chicago conducted research into the January 6th insurrectionists. They are a cross-section of America.
They are blue collar, white collar, business owners, and professionals. Should Trump win again, it is not outside the realm of possibility that many more people, just like those who besieged the Capitol would take ‘law and order’ into their own hands.
With no positive control from local, state, or federal authorities, it’s likely that things could escalate quickly and violently. Donald Trump and his cronies aren’t afraid of this outcome, they’re counting on it.
This weekend’s anniversary was a stark reminder of what our country faces in the next 10 months. In their book, Tyranny of the Minority, authors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt note that one of the key factors in a political party becoming un-democratic is its willingness to invoke and utilize violence. This is the Republican Party of 2024. This is the party of MAGA. This is the party of Donald Trump.
If we already know that Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Mark Meadows, and others were willing to lead, orchestrate and carry out an attempted coup against the United States, what makes anyone believe they’re not willing to go further in the next year? We should not, cannot, and must not take that chance.
It is incumbent upon all of us who can participate strenuously, forcefully, but peacefully in the democratic process do so, tirelessly, and unflinchingly for the next 300 days. After all, if Trump was willing to watch Mike Pence hang, what do you think he’s willing to do to you?
The Project 2025 document is 900 pages. It took me weeks to get through it and terrifying. It's the type of stuff you write when you plan an armed hostile take-over of a government. Not to fill out empty seats. Every Democrat should be doing daily press conferences to explain it and how unhinged it is.
And now your fast-forward take on it is just as shuddering. I felt like I was watching The Man in the High Castle, that TV show with a dystopian America dominated by Nazi Germany.
This nightmare vision is all too plausible.
Our country is sleepwalking toward it.