Political Service Announcement #5: You (Still) Have to Act Like You Want to Win
Politics Ain't Beanbag
Elections have BINARY outcomes. You win, or you lose.
Regardless the contest, if you want to win, it’s important to 1) believe it’s possible 2) take actions to demonstrate said belief 3) be consistent in word and deed to prosecute a vigorous and successful campaign.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fight.” - Sun Tzu
After nearly five years of observing, and fighting alongside Democrats, I remain amazed, and mystified, that cycle-in and cycle-out they must be convinced that victory is both possible and essential. Both as a party, and individual voting cohorts don’t rally behind their banner or their candidate(s) until panic sets in.
I love y’all, though. You’re good people.
Joe Biden can and win in November. His campaign’s move this week to bait Donald Trump into debates on Biden’s terms is what we need more of. We need more of this kind of aggressive, forward-leaning politics. Dominance and prestige win. Timidity and fear lose.
Earlier this week, I interviewed UC Berkeley professor Steven Fish about his new book, Comeback: Routing Trumpism, Reclaiming the Nation, Restoring Democracy’s Edge. Bottom line: Democrats need to fight more like Republicans.
Fish posits, and I agree with, that voters are looking for strength, direction, and dominance in their leaders. This includes Democratic voters. Candidates that come across as soft or uncommitted do not drive support among their bases or undecided voters.
We’ve seen this time, and again, but it bears repeating: Voters choose based on values, not on policy. Fish provides data that indicates, in fact, individual policy proposals do not drive passion in a party’s supporters. As I’ve written before, policy giveaways come off as transactional, not believable, not enough, or all three.
I’ve sat through dozens of meetings, coffees, dinners, and events with Democrats, patriots all. Time and again, “Why aren’t we good at messaging? Why don’t we fight like you do?”
Bottom line: Belief.
“Messaging” and “narrative” are derivative of belief and principle. Let’s complete a brief political exercise.
Value 1: Patriotism and America’s Place in the World
The United States of America has been leader of the free world for over a century. Since our entry into World War I, the global axis has rotated mostly around the American fulcrum.
World War II and then the Cold War cemented America’s preeminent position in geopolitics and the ‘shining city on a hill’ as Ronald Reagan would intone during his farewell address to the nation in 1989.
Many Americans, whether elites agree or not, still believe in that vision. We grew up during the Cold War. We knew the Russians were the enemy. We knew NATO and our allies helped keep us safe from the godless red hordes ready to shoot the Fulda Gap and start World War III.
In 2024, the Russians are still our adversaries. NATO is still the (much larger) bulwark to Moscow’s aggression. Ukraine is a democracy fighting for its life against that same red horde for which we prepared over a half-century.
Most voters, of all races, geographies, and demographics love this country. They’re proud to live in the US and they’re proud of what it means be an American. This is why many of them, specifically Nikki Haley voters or Liz Cheney fans, don’t like or understand Donald Trump.
Trump and his followers don’t see America as great. He doesn’t support NATO or Ukraine and pals around with murderous dictators like Vladimir Putin. In their eyes, Trump is un-American in his beliefs, his politics and his attitudes.
Does that mean they’ll pull the lever for Joe Biden? That still remains to be seen. The president will have to demonstrate that he is a strong, democratic leader, who believes that America’s place in the world is not just important, but crucial to freedom and democracy.
Value 2: Individual Liberty, Personal Privacy, Primacy of Family
There is a way to talk to Republicans about why the Dobbs decision is bad for the country, and in particular, for their families. However, the decades-old messaging Democratic messaging on the issue will not move any of them.
Instead we have to ask these moms and dads, and there are a lot of girl-dads out there, whether or not they believe the government has a right to tell their families how to live. Americans carry a strong libertarian streak around with us, since before the Founding, even. For these Republican and conservative voters, the idea of centralized control over their lives and especially the families, is anathema.
Many of them want the GOP of individual liberty and limited government back. The Dobbs decision strikes against these instincts. Do you, as a mother or father, want a bunch of Washington politicians, or worse yet, a bunch of unelected judges, deciding how you will handle what could be the most personal or difficult decisions?
As a husband, do you want the government mandating how your wife must handle an ectopic or non-viable pregnancy? No.
Don’t believe this works? It already has in states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio. Not exactly purple palaces or blue bastions.
The ideas above aren’t about Ukraine policy, or pro-choice v. pro-life. They’re values-based arguments. Policy, like politics, is downstream from culture and the values we see in ourselves, our communities, and our country. We want our leaders to represent those same values.
As we approach November it’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement illustrate - show, don’t tell - the divergent futures that Trump and Biden represent. The destruction and ugliness of a Trump-imposed national carnage must be brought to life. The Joe Biden-as-Bridge to the Future narrative must be crafted, deployed and repeated 1,000,000 times in the next five-plus months.
Last bit of advice for my Democratic friends: Stop worrying so much. Stop worrying about “blow back” or who gets upset or ramping up support among Trump supporters. There are no perfect candidates, campaigns or messages.
Instead, act like you want to win. Say “We’re going to win!” Want to win. Don’t be afraid. Be excited, as I am, that we have the opportunity to be at the forefront of the fight for our time.
News and Notes:
Buy (and read!) Steve Fish’s book below (click on the picture.)
Listen to my conversation with Steve here.
Reed wrote:
*****As we approach November it’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement illustrate - show, don’t tell - the divergent futures that Trump and Biden represent. The destruction and ugliness of a Trump-imposed national carnage must be brought to life. The Joe Biden-as-Bridge to the Future narrative must be crafted, deployed and repeated 1,000,000 times in the next five-plus months.*****
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I agree with this.
And what I agree with most are the following ten words: "[I]t’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement..."
It is not enough to pontificate, to inhabit the role of armchair campaign manager or consultant.
Everything is at stake and it is on all of us to do what we can for the cause. We must participate all the way through, from now until the polls close.
So speak up! Share good messages with those who most need to hear them -- the persuadable voters in the six or so competitive states that will decide the election.
Reach them with:
-- letters to the editor of news outlets in those states.
-- social media posts and comments directed toward voters in those states.
-- postcards and texts
-- whatever you can think of
We have agency and we must exercise it.
I listened to the interview and read this essay, and yet it seems unlikely that this advice will be taken.
Biden wants to run as a "happy warrior" at ac time when people are worried about losing rights, the fraying of democracy, a new cold war with China, and 2 intractable wars that threaten to spread into regional wars.
"Worries about the economy" have become a proxy for worries about the aforementioned issues.
Biden's strategy of a SOTU speech and 2 debates is woefully inadequate, yet there's no indication that he plans to provide a vision for the future, explain the rationale for changes in our China policy, or even to shore up safety for election workers.
I'll vote for Biden no matter what he says or does, a Trump reelection would be apocalyptic for the country and the world. But right now, Biden and Democratic leadership are enabling those who are desperate for a reason not to vote for Democrats.
I hope enough people wake up to the stakes...the GOP's inability to refrain from passing laws criminalizing speech/doctors/women/hospitals, attacking IVF, birth control, sex education, the gay community, Muslims, public education, Social Security, etc. is providing the ammunition (though largely ignored by media).
Trump's plans to assert the Insurrection Act, assume control over the Federal Reserve, extort CEOs, dissolve NATO, and enact Project 2025 will lead to hyperinflation, loss of confidence in the USD, a militarized police state, a rapid degradation of civil rights...I could go on and on.
Someone has to explain the stakes to the American people.