Your positive words help. I'm so disturbed by the polls, by the way the media and SCOTUS seem to be in the tank for trump, and by the DOJ's limp reaction to his crimes. It seems so hopeless at times but I'm not going to give up.
Keep going, Suzanne. Try not to read too much into the polls. I've discovered you have to dig deep into them to find out which are good and which are garbage. Most are the latter. Focus instead on the real polls: what the electorate has decided at the ballot box in the last two years (or more, if you prefer). There the Democratic Party has outperformed pollsters' predictions often by +5 points. You know this because you've seen Dems winning across the board. It gives some indication of the bias you have experienced in the polls you're reading. Polling has become really, really hard to do well. How many people answer phone calls from complete strangers these days? Let alone are willing to discuss their politics with them.
Do more, worry less, as they say over on the Hopium Chronicles. Which, by the way, you should absolutely follow (for free here on Substack). It's full of people like you, all determined to make a difference. And they will.
Thank you, Martin! I am always looking for more sources (reputable, of course). And it’s helpful to be reminded that polling is only as good as the methodology it uses. Much of it does seem like utter crap. Small sample sizes allow for huge errors.
1200 would be a great number for a statewide poll—it probably exceeds the population of Wyoming—but is a terrible number for a national poll. I do feel sorry for the pollsters. Almost no one answers the door or phone to strangers. Online surveys are notoriously unreliable because people go a little wild and crazy when they take them. You can never be sure someone isn't pranking you. The smaller your sample, the more error creeps into your extrapolations. It is very expensive to try to find enough reliable respondents. I'm sure there are many other confounding factors I'm missing too. What bothers me is that the news organisations will never say, "Well, we tried, but the results too unreliable so we're not publishing them." Now that is a great agenda-setting news story. But we will never see it.
*****As we approach November it’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement illustrate - show, don’t tell - the divergent futures that Trump and Biden represent. The destruction and ugliness of a Trump-imposed national carnage must be brought to life. The Joe Biden-as-Bridge to the Future narrative must be crafted, deployed and repeated 1,000,000 times in the next five-plus months.*****
.
I agree with this.
And what I agree with most are the following ten words: "[I]t’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement..."
It is not enough to pontificate, to inhabit the role of armchair campaign manager or consultant.
Everything is at stake and it is on all of us to do what we can for the cause. We must participate all the way through, from now until the polls close.
So speak up! Share good messages with those who most need to hear them -- the persuadable voters in the six or so competitive states that will decide the election.
Reach them with:
-- letters to the editor of news outlets in those states.
-- social media posts and comments directed toward voters in those states.
I listened to the interview and read this essay, and yet it seems unlikely that this advice will be taken.
Biden wants to run as a "happy warrior" at ac time when people are worried about losing rights, the fraying of democracy, a new cold war with China, and 2 intractable wars that threaten to spread into regional wars.
"Worries about the economy" have become a proxy for worries about the aforementioned issues.
Biden's strategy of a SOTU speech and 2 debates is woefully inadequate, yet there's no indication that he plans to provide a vision for the future, explain the rationale for changes in our China policy, or even to shore up safety for election workers.
I'll vote for Biden no matter what he says or does, a Trump reelection would be apocalyptic for the country and the world. But right now, Biden and Democratic leadership are enabling those who are desperate for a reason not to vote for Democrats.
I hope enough people wake up to the stakes...the GOP's inability to refrain from passing laws criminalizing speech/doctors/women/hospitals, attacking IVF, birth control, sex education, the gay community, Muslims, public education, Social Security, etc. is providing the ammunition (though largely ignored by media).
Trump's plans to assert the Insurrection Act, assume control over the Federal Reserve, extort CEOs, dissolve NATO, and enact Project 2025 will lead to hyperinflation, loss of confidence in the USD, a militarized police state, a rapid degradation of civil rights...I could go on and on.
Someone has to explain the stakes to the American people.
I hope people wake up! Its Independent Voters, and even Dem voters who either think these things "can't happen here" or who, because of their economic privilege think that "life won't be much different" for them if Trump gets back in. I can't believe the apathy.
No one but the ruler and his family are safe under a dictatorship.
Trump will allow Evangelicals full control as long as he's allowed to extort corporations for increasingly generous "contributions". Add the billions of extorted fees to the artificially low interest rates, and the irreversible damage to the stock market is clear.
Meanwhile, Evangelicals will roll back civil rights and "entitlement".
It won't be orderly rule by a strongman. It will be chaos and fear, with laws changing by the day, neighbors turning on one another, and unchecked power by the military and police forces to keep the populace in line.
People should spend an hour learning how quickly Germany changed from a democracy to fascism...it was months between Hitler's appointment as Chancellor to the erection of the first concentration camp.
Apathy and low turnout was the turning point for 1930s Germany. The pattern repeats.
You can’t be serious. Biden does not know where he is and who he is when he wakes up. Do you actually think Biden is making the decisions? You probably do. He is not capable of reading the script he is handed. Do you think it’s patriotic, or “defending our constitution “, by an open southern border and funding their sustenance here with taxpayer dollars, when their are so many homeless Americans on our streets in our major cities? Many are veterans that need our help. They’ve been abandoned. There is something seriously illogical and your inability to grasp reality in your thinking. It is unbridgeable.
Reed has given us 2 talking points: Each one has Value 1: Patriotism and America’s Place in the World. 2: Individual Liberty, Personal Privacy, Primacy of Family. Let's do our part in spreading the word. If we are on it! We can win.
I always appreciate your hopefulness. It would be easy to withdraw into apathy, given the dismal polls and the seeming lack of understanding by many people about the importance of this election. You make an excellent point in stating that policy doesn’t drive elections. (Well, it does for me, but I am one of those much-loathed intellectuals.) This has been demonstrated by social psychology research: people respond to issues at an emotional, unexamined level, then seek data to justify their belief system (confirmation bias). If we want to engage with others, it begins with understanding their strong emotional responses to issues.
Such a good interview! Willing you all on over here in Scotland. He was so right in Dems needing to appeal to the “pull yourselves up by your bootstraps” ideals and that social security/Medicare is your right that you’ve earned rather than a handout. In UK our NHS is beloved beyond words because we all contribute to it. Also it’s your flag - start waving it! Love your podcasts Reed, keep fighting the good fight.
I don't worry when I read posts from you, Rick, Simon or listen to Joe Trippi's podcast! I don't even worry about the polls much. It's the other doomsday prophets, some former LP project colleagues ( names not mentioned) and D's on another Substack channel who have the same initials as LP that are forecasting that we are in big trouble. These are voices in the past who I would listen to and believe in, so that is concerning to me.
The Democrats should be flooding the TV networks, social media, print journalist interviews with 30 or 40 top leaders. Countering each and every Trump claim (CNN counted 27 false claims/fantasies at his NJ rally), in detail. Then LAUGHING AT HIM! Every Day!
Trump says something stupid. The NYT reports it as fact, without asking WHY he said it. Democratic counter? Crickets. Silence. The few talking Democrat talking heads are sweet, and mild and rational. But they don't slam the lie as a lie and explain the REASON behind the deception. The Dems better start thinking like Roger Stone so they can anticipate the Dirty Tricks he and Trump will play on America. And get ahead of what's coming.
If the Dems don't get off their asses, the handful of the Trump World Gang will take the nation away from the 80% majority. Who actually want America to continue to be governed by the GOOD men and women.
Your positive words help. I'm so disturbed by the polls, by the way the media and SCOTUS seem to be in the tank for trump, and by the DOJ's limp reaction to his crimes. It seems so hopeless at times but I'm not going to give up.
Keep going, Suzanne. Try not to read too much into the polls. I've discovered you have to dig deep into them to find out which are good and which are garbage. Most are the latter. Focus instead on the real polls: what the electorate has decided at the ballot box in the last two years (or more, if you prefer). There the Democratic Party has outperformed pollsters' predictions often by +5 points. You know this because you've seen Dems winning across the board. It gives some indication of the bias you have experienced in the polls you're reading. Polling has become really, really hard to do well. How many people answer phone calls from complete strangers these days? Let alone are willing to discuss their politics with them.
Do more, worry less, as they say over on the Hopium Chronicles. Which, by the way, you should absolutely follow (for free here on Substack). It's full of people like you, all determined to make a difference. And they will.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com
Keep calm and carry on.
Thank you, Martin! I am always looking for more sources (reputable, of course). And it’s helpful to be reminded that polling is only as good as the methodology it uses. Much of it does seem like utter crap. Small sample sizes allow for huge errors.
Thanks, Martin! I've noticed the n on these polls are ridiculously small, like 1200 people. They'll insist that this is fine.
1200 would be a great number for a statewide poll—it probably exceeds the population of Wyoming—but is a terrible number for a national poll. I do feel sorry for the pollsters. Almost no one answers the door or phone to strangers. Online surveys are notoriously unreliable because people go a little wild and crazy when they take them. You can never be sure someone isn't pranking you. The smaller your sample, the more error creeps into your extrapolations. It is very expensive to try to find enough reliable respondents. I'm sure there are many other confounding factors I'm missing too. What bothers me is that the news organisations will never say, "Well, we tried, but the results too unreliable so we're not publishing them." Now that is a great agenda-setting news story. But we will never see it.
It's not a job I'd want! I'd probably politely answer their questions but they've never once called me.
Reed wrote:
*****As we approach November it’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement illustrate - show, don’t tell - the divergent futures that Trump and Biden represent. The destruction and ugliness of a Trump-imposed national carnage must be brought to life. The Joe Biden-as-Bridge to the Future narrative must be crafted, deployed and repeated 1,000,000 times in the next five-plus months.*****
.
I agree with this.
And what I agree with most are the following ten words: "[I]t’s crucial that all of us in the pro-democracy movement..."
It is not enough to pontificate, to inhabit the role of armchair campaign manager or consultant.
Everything is at stake and it is on all of us to do what we can for the cause. We must participate all the way through, from now until the polls close.
So speak up! Share good messages with those who most need to hear them -- the persuadable voters in the six or so competitive states that will decide the election.
Reach them with:
-- letters to the editor of news outlets in those states.
-- social media posts and comments directed toward voters in those states.
-- postcards and texts
-- whatever you can think of
We have agency and we must exercise it.
And volunteer. To drive people to the polls. To canvass. To do all the myriad things that make grass-roots campaigns successful.
I listened to the interview and read this essay, and yet it seems unlikely that this advice will be taken.
Biden wants to run as a "happy warrior" at ac time when people are worried about losing rights, the fraying of democracy, a new cold war with China, and 2 intractable wars that threaten to spread into regional wars.
"Worries about the economy" have become a proxy for worries about the aforementioned issues.
Biden's strategy of a SOTU speech and 2 debates is woefully inadequate, yet there's no indication that he plans to provide a vision for the future, explain the rationale for changes in our China policy, or even to shore up safety for election workers.
I'll vote for Biden no matter what he says or does, a Trump reelection would be apocalyptic for the country and the world. But right now, Biden and Democratic leadership are enabling those who are desperate for a reason not to vote for Democrats.
I hope enough people wake up to the stakes...the GOP's inability to refrain from passing laws criminalizing speech/doctors/women/hospitals, attacking IVF, birth control, sex education, the gay community, Muslims, public education, Social Security, etc. is providing the ammunition (though largely ignored by media).
Trump's plans to assert the Insurrection Act, assume control over the Federal Reserve, extort CEOs, dissolve NATO, and enact Project 2025 will lead to hyperinflation, loss of confidence in the USD, a militarized police state, a rapid degradation of civil rights...I could go on and on.
Someone has to explain the stakes to the American people.
I hope people wake up! Its Independent Voters, and even Dem voters who either think these things "can't happen here" or who, because of their economic privilege think that "life won't be much different" for them if Trump gets back in. I can't believe the apathy.
No one but the ruler and his family are safe under a dictatorship.
Trump will allow Evangelicals full control as long as he's allowed to extort corporations for increasingly generous "contributions". Add the billions of extorted fees to the artificially low interest rates, and the irreversible damage to the stock market is clear.
Meanwhile, Evangelicals will roll back civil rights and "entitlement".
It won't be orderly rule by a strongman. It will be chaos and fear, with laws changing by the day, neighbors turning on one another, and unchecked power by the military and police forces to keep the populace in line.
People should spend an hour learning how quickly Germany changed from a democracy to fascism...it was months between Hitler's appointment as Chancellor to the erection of the first concentration camp.
Apathy and low turnout was the turning point for 1930s Germany. The pattern repeats.
II’m gonna have to repeat to myself
“ we can win we can win we can win we can……….”
You can’t be serious. Biden does not know where he is and who he is when he wakes up. Do you actually think Biden is making the decisions? You probably do. He is not capable of reading the script he is handed. Do you think it’s patriotic, or “defending our constitution “, by an open southern border and funding their sustenance here with taxpayer dollars, when their are so many homeless Americans on our streets in our major cities? Many are veterans that need our help. They’ve been abandoned. There is something seriously illogical and your inability to grasp reality in your thinking. It is unbridgeable.
I agree with what you have written in this article.
Reed has given us 2 talking points: Each one has Value 1: Patriotism and America’s Place in the World. 2: Individual Liberty, Personal Privacy, Primacy of Family. Let's do our part in spreading the word. If we are on it! We can win.
I always appreciate your hopefulness. It would be easy to withdraw into apathy, given the dismal polls and the seeming lack of understanding by many people about the importance of this election. You make an excellent point in stating that policy doesn’t drive elections. (Well, it does for me, but I am one of those much-loathed intellectuals.) This has been demonstrated by social psychology research: people respond to issues at an emotional, unexamined level, then seek data to justify their belief system (confirmation bias). If we want to engage with others, it begins with understanding their strong emotional responses to issues.
Such a good interview! Willing you all on over here in Scotland. He was so right in Dems needing to appeal to the “pull yourselves up by your bootstraps” ideals and that social security/Medicare is your right that you’ve earned rather than a handout. In UK our NHS is beloved beyond words because we all contribute to it. Also it’s your flag - start waving it! Love your podcasts Reed, keep fighting the good fight.
I don't worry when I read posts from you, Rick, Simon or listen to Joe Trippi's podcast! I don't even worry about the polls much. It's the other doomsday prophets, some former LP project colleagues ( names not mentioned) and D's on another Substack channel who have the same initials as LP that are forecasting that we are in big trouble. These are voices in the past who I would listen to and believe in, so that is concerning to me.
The Democrats should be flooding the TV networks, social media, print journalist interviews with 30 or 40 top leaders. Countering each and every Trump claim (CNN counted 27 false claims/fantasies at his NJ rally), in detail. Then LAUGHING AT HIM! Every Day!
Trump says something stupid. The NYT reports it as fact, without asking WHY he said it. Democratic counter? Crickets. Silence. The few talking Democrat talking heads are sweet, and mild and rational. But they don't slam the lie as a lie and explain the REASON behind the deception. The Dems better start thinking like Roger Stone so they can anticipate the Dirty Tricks he and Trump will play on America. And get ahead of what's coming.
If the Dems don't get off their asses, the handful of the Trump World Gang will take the nation away from the 80% majority. Who actually want America to continue to be governed by the GOOD men and women.