Donald Trump's No Good, Very Bad Campaign (Part XXXIV)
Donald Trump’s campaign is failing and flailing. This is no surprise, of course. Trump doesn’t run campaigns: He creates extensions of himself, his id, and his ego, staffed and stocked with fools who believe they this time (this time!) they’ll be able to control the addled Orange near-octogentarian.
This is akin to believing one could control a meth-addled raccoon. You might keep it caged for a while, but its instinct is to claw your eyes out.
When the likes of Nikki Haley and others go on Fox News and implore Donald Trump’s campaign to focus on ‘issues’ they must know they’re screaming into the wind. Trump is the alpha and omega of his operation.
He’s incapable of being anything other than he is: A lifelong personality disorder and accelerating cognitive decline combining to create a stream of lies, insanity and invective surprising even to me; an anthropologist of this species of one.
Campaigns are Made of Moments
Not unlike a football game, most of us don’t remember the play that went for three yards or a Tuesday in mid-August when presidential campaigns sparred on social media and at dueling events.
We remember the moments that change the direction and momentum of the contest. President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside last month, and the Trump campaign’s unpreparedness for it, will be the defining moment of the race.
As someone whose spent most of his life in electoral politics (no really, I went to Capitol Hill while other kids went to summer camp) the fact that Trump’s brain trust of Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles did nothing, nothing to prepare for Biden’s departure and Kamala Harris’ ascendance is pure political malpractice.
A very smart friend of mine provided this insight on the Trump campaign’s clay feet: The denizens of Mar-A-Lago can’t imagine, let alone intellectualize someone, especially the President of the United States, putting the country above their own career and ambition in a selfless, patriotic act. They weren’t ready because Donald Trump would never have made the same decision (and has the dreadful electoral scorecard to prove it.)
The practical effect? Kamala Harris’ brand new campaign has had weeks of clean air to communicate who she is, her values, and to build upon the massive rush organic energy that accompanied her ascendance. Now the Trump campaign is telling people that ‘no one is paying attention in August’ and they’ll wait until after Labor Day to begin defining their opponent.
Is it 1992 or 2004?
No. Everyone is paying attention!
Biden Beats Trump (Again)
In most of his interviews and appearances, Donald Trump just can’t quit Joe Biden. There are a couple of reasons for this: First, Trump’s brain lost any plasticity years ago so once he gets something stuck in his head, it’s near-impossible to get it out.
Second, at a deeper level, Trump knows that Biden’s decision to step aside means that, though the current president won’t be on the ballot in November, his selfless act will result in the end of Trump’s political career and the beginning of legal, political and financial troubles the convicted felon has spent a lifetime avoiding.
Like Obi-Wan Kenobi departing the scene, Joe Biden became more powerful than Donald Trump could possibly imagine.
Throwing Ketchup at the Wall
I’d argue that Trump’s election in 2016, and near re-election in 2020 were a collective failure of imagination. Then, few of us who’d been doing this for any length of time could believe a carnival barker could captivate so many otherwise normal Americans.
As I noted above, Trump’s flat-footed team is accustomed to being the chaos, not having it envelope them. Overtaken by events, they tried calling out Harris as the ‘DEI candidate.” No dice. Harris isn’t ‘really black'. How’d that work out? They tried to Swiftboat Tim Walz. No joy.
The Heinz is flying fast and furious in the Mar-A-Lago bridal suite. Trump hates being on his back heel, and his team isn’t experienced, or talented enough, to switch gears now. Did I mention Trump is nearly 80 years old? Old cur, new tricks, all that.
Their ‘message event’ last week, featuring Trump standing before a collection grocery items shocked me. After all this time as a blazing authoritarian meteorite, the idea that Donald Trump can now play-act as a ‘normal politician’ is a fallacy. MAGA loves Trump because he doesn’t talk ‘issues’ but rants, rages, and rambles about all the things he hates and the stuff his followers hate, too.
Does anyone, MAGA or not, believe that Donald Trump has ever set foot in a supermarket? That’s he’s compared prices? That he’s tested an avocado to see if it’s ripe? That he’s had to make the choice between the thing he’d like to have and the thing he could afford?
No.
Trump is A Mere Mortal
My friend, collaborator, and bona-fide freedom fighter Trygve Olson has said many times that once an authoritarian leader’s sense of inevitability and invincibility is pierced, it’s the beginning of the end.
Like Austin Powers losing his mojo, even Donald Trump doesn’t buy his own bullshit anymore. He’s going through the motions, repeating the same tired old attacks, being, well, Donald Trump. The issue for him, his campaign and his followers, is that it’s not 2016.
As Kamala Harris’ ascendance continues, we’ll see a corresponding decline in Trump. This is being borne out in campaign cash, rallies, and media coverage. Harris is eclipsing Trump in the attention economy that is American politics. He’s used to being the eclipsing body, not the one in shadow.
He Is Who He Is
Most things in life, in nature, and in politics return to the mean. Yes, there will be moments (!) of high drama, excitement, happiness, or crushing sorrow, but most people have a pretty standard set of actions and reactions. Donald Trump is no different.
Though his campaign leadership was steadfastly opposed to Trump choosing JD Vance as his running mate, the decrepit would-be dictator instead chose to listen to Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, Jr. those paragons of normalcy, wisdom, and Putin-bucks. Vance is on the ticket precisely because Trump likes to remind his people who’s in charge.
Enter Kellyanne Conway and Corey Lewandowski.
The return of the old crew to Trump’s good graces was always a matter of “when” not “if.” Despite Chris LaCivita’s successful effort to convince the political press that Trump was indeed under control, it was always a mirage.
Now unhappy with his people, Trump’s brought back the people he likes most: Those that tell him he can do whatever he wants, say whatever he wants, and never tell him he’s wrong about anything. The nest of vipers has grown in size and will be uglier than ever in the next 70+ days.
Down, Not Out
All the arrows are pointing up for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as they prepare for their convention this week. The boomerang in support, enthusiasm and positive polling are heartening to we graybeards of the pro-democracy movement.
We’ve seen it all fall apart, too. I’ve written too many times to count, but it bears repeating: To beat Trump you must stay in his face all day, every day. We must offer him no light and deprive him of all available political oxygen.
We must convince him that every bad decision he makes is the fault of those around him. Keep him turned inward or toward those of us willing to get inside his head and stay there (not a pretty place, I assure you.)
To my Democratic friends, some thoughts:
This fight is far from over and the ugliness ahead will be hard to comprehend. The further Trump’s prospects fall, the more dangerous and odious his words will become.
Take nothing for granted, not for the next 80 days, not on Election Day, and not afterward.
We’ve seen this play before, don’t be surprised. Open up your imagination and climb outside the politics you’ve known your entire careers.
Show imminent respect to those Republicans who’ve come out in public support of Vice President Harris. They’ve put everything, everything, on the line for this. Many of them live under constant threat; violent, legal, and professional. We know what happens if Trump wins and have prepared ourselves for that eventuality. Appreciate the effort and the perseverance to do what’s best for the country, despite the peril.
News and Notes:
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Please listen to my terrific conversations with The New Republic’s Greg Sargent and Puck’s Tara Palmeri (respectively.)
En Route to Chicago! Will post daily updates of the happenings.
Nice analysis.
I hope that people preparing V-P Harris for a debate with Trump listen to what happened to Malcolm Gladwell in a debate where he was confident he would win, because he had the facts and arguments (and morality) down pat: he got creamed by someone who knew how to debate.
https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/revisionist-history/malcolm-goes-to-debate-school
That person was a former president of the Oxford Union, so a world-class debater, not a world-class liar and windbag like Trump. But the podcast is a useful lesson in how debates are different from policy discussions.
That's one of the problems Biden had, as well as not being able to concentrate when he needed to, and crummy preparation. (How could he have so badly botched his answer to the most easily predictable question of the evening: 'are you too old?' The answer was not his 'America is a great country' but 'I am old but I am wise. Nobody will ever call Trump wise. Cruel? Yes. Corrupt? Yes. Incompetent? Yes... etc' but Wise, never.)
So a couple of hours reflecting on the lessons Gladwell had so painfully rubbed into him would be a benefit.
you're hitting the nail right on the head.
well-written and insightful
thank you