We Will Win (But it Will Take All of Us)

13 Days to Victory

On the trail in Florida!

I started Yuval Noah Harari’s new book, Nexus, and didn’t get two pages into the prelude when I read this:

“We should not assume delusional networks are doomed to failure. If we want to prevent their triumph, we will have to do the hard work ourselves.”

That’s it, folks. We’re two weeks out. The switches are all being flipped. The TV (as terrible as 90% of the spots are) has all been bought. American voters are suffering from wall-to-wall political sound in contested states and races.

And for all the billions that will be spent, it will still come down to the humble volunteer. Not the paid goons that Elon Musk and Team DeSantis are getting fleeced by, but people from all walks of life, many of whom have never set foot inside a campaign office, called a voter, or knocked on a stranger’s door.

We’ve never had more ways to reach voters, and those methods have never been more inefficient than they are now. I’m not talking about placing a digital ad on someone’s phone; that is relatively easy to do if you have their cell number. I’m talking about the effectiveness with which a tactic convinces a voter to take action.

It’s not polling. It’s not data analysis. It’s not television ads. The candidates at the top of the campaign and the ground game at the bottom will provide the margin of victory. The campaign itself will believe that it can control all things all the time (they can’t and never could.)

Sitting in a Washington, DC or New York City office (campaign or news media) cannot and does not provide the ground truth necessary to see what is/isn’t working for a campaign. Assuming that because someone lives in Grand Rapids that they’re not as smart as you is the fastest way to lose a race; yet it happens every election cycle.

Relying on 10,000 data points to tell you what will move a voter in a economically downscale neighborhood won’t work either. Politics is an emotional endeavor. The “messaging” that works isn’t intellectual, it’s emotive. Watching a :42 second spot on your phone might be interesting, but it’s the person you run into during your canvass, who thinks this whole fight is ‘the lesser of two evils’ isn’t going to be swayed by the same bowl-of-vanilla-ice cream ad they’ve seen 800 times.

I’ve been on the road nearly every week this fall and I am so much better for it. Having spent my entire life in politics (explains a lot doesn’t it?) the need to get out into the places where the elections are happening, not in my bubble, but in neighborhoods from Detroit to Davenport, is crucial.

There’s a trope that goes: “Democracy is not a spectator sport.” I believe that. However, it will be the happy few who write a postcard, send a text, make a phone call, or tentatively knock on their first door as the canine early warning system goes off, that can and will make the difference; and always has. (Join The Union!)

Money matters, of course. Too often, though, we mistake money for winning. All the campaign cash in the world doesn’t buy victory, it buys options. The more you have, the more different tactics you can deploy to sway the electorate your way. Money for the Harris/Walz campaign is not an issue. They’re rolling in it.

If they (and all campaigns and parties) took 25% of the money they raise between June and November of election years and spent it communicating to voters and communities they need to win, voter turn out would be higher, voters would be more engaged, and you’d win a lot more elections.

But all that is grousing for December.

For this last stretch run, let’s drink our coffee, eat our donuts, and hit the doors. We can win this race. We will win this race. When Kamala Harris wins on November 5th, it will be on the back of the most diverse ideological coalition since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

I am proud to be a small part of this fight, and prouder still to have so many of you alongside as we march toward Election Day.

Onward!

News and Notes:

First, I want to thank all the great folks who came out to support The Union’s mission in Arizona, Florida, and New York City this week. Get involved, we need your help!

I hope you’ll check out my conversation Jennifer Adams, running in Florida’s 7th Congressional District, on the latest episode of The Home Front Podcast. Listen, Follow and Rate 5 Stars while you’re there.

Also, please give a listen to my conversation with Ben Bauman on the Roots or Reality Podcast.

Lastly, thanks to Stephanie Ruhle for having me on 11th Hour (in studio!) Tuesday night. Here’s a quick clip.