Trump Is Leading Republicans to a(n) Historic Blowout
They Will Follow Him into the Dark
As Nikki Haley says, Donald Trump isn’t what he was in 2016. He’s not what he was in 2020. He’s not what he was a year ago. His ability to wow a crowd and hoover up low propensity and otherwise disinterested voters hit its high-water mark four years ago and he still lost the popular vote by 7,000,000. Now, as an older, uglier, worn-out version of himself, he’s begun his long march toward defeat once again.
And he’s going to take other Republicans down with him.
We should remember that Trump has been electoral poison for his own party in any state or race that wasn’t gerrymandered to the Nth Degree. Across the country, when a normal, confident, competent Democrat takes on a MAGA loon, the Democrat wins going away.
Party elders and donors blamed Trump for losing two(!) US Senate seats in Georgia on January 5th, 2021. In the 2022 midterms, the GOP was saddled with Trump-backed nominees in most of the swing Electoral College states. Except in Nevada, Democrats swept key offices and most of those races weren’t close.
In last fall’s off-year elections, Republicans once again under-performed as candidates and state parties chose to make further tightening abortion rules a centerpiece of their campaigns. In Ohio, a measure to preserve reproductive rights passed overwhelmingly.
Meanwhile, Trump is running around screaming, “I killed Roe!”
Aside: Dear Political Media, Donald Trump is not ‘moderating’ on abortion. Don’t buy LaCivita’s crap. You know as well as we do that he can’t win without the evangelicals. He’ll only ever celebrate his Supreme Court and their decision to overturn Roe.
The Dobbs decision is the bumper these Republican dogs can’t stop catching. Kooks like Speaker Mike Johnson will continue to spew his Christian nationalism to all corners of the country and normal Americans will run away faster than Johnson disavowed his adopted Black son.
What appeared to evangelical Christians to be the pinnacle of their 40 year crusade to end abortion will help spell the beginning of the end of Trump and MAGA. Their movement will continue to pressure Republicans from Trump on down to remain pure on the issue, even as their consultants watch female voters disappear.
Speaking of women, Donald Trump’s manifold issues with the fairer sex (all of his own making) will not improve in the next nine months. As noted above, there is Dobbs. Trump and acolytes like Charlie Kirk can’t help but denigrate and demean women on the daily. Trump’s defamation of E. Jean Carroll cost him $83 million he doesn’t have and reminded Americans that for Trump sexual assault isn’t enough, he has to publicly humiliate his victim, too.
Then there is Trump’s rage at former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. [Insert obligatory note that Haley won’t win the nomination.] Regardless of her ability to defeat Trump, her presence in the race is driving The Donald batty. He ridicules her appearance, her clothing, her intelligence, and threatens to release embarrassing information about her.
Good job, Don. I’m sure female voters in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will think that’s just swell.
Haley’s rhetoric and attacks on Trump have taken the necessary turn to hurt him in the General Election. She is blanketing national and cable news outlets taunting him for being too scared to debate her (he is) and because he’s lost his marbles (he has.) The barrage against Haley will intensify in coming days as South Carolina approaches; the result will be a crystallizing of Trump’s base at the expense of those exhausted by him.
By then, the damage will have been done. How many non-Trump Republicans and undecided independents will pull the lever for an aging, unhinged malignant narcissist, or anyone associated with him? Haley knows she can’t win, but she can help Trump lose.
Republicans on Capitol Hill, hoping to retake the US Senate and hanging onto their House majority by Majorie Taylor-Greene’s dirty fingernails will also feel Trump’s downward pressure this fall.
Trump and the GOP desperately want and need to make the situation at our southern border the centerpiece of their campaign. President Joe Biden recognizing that good politics and good policy often go together, has offered a deal with Republican leaders. He’s happy to make a solid deal on the border and immigration in return for Ukraine funding. This is governing, y’all! Actual governing.
Faced with actually solving a problem, Speaker Johnson and Senate Leader Mitch McConnell have no said – out loud – that Trump has ordered them not to make a deal with the White House. So – the border is in ‘crisis’ and you’re demanding the president do something, so he offers a good deal (better than they probably ever thought they’d get) and now you’re saying “No.”
Maybe against another politician, in another time this bullshit would work. But not against Joe Biden, and not in this year when so much is on the line. All the MAGA nuts running around saying they’ll never give Biden a win are doing exactly that.
Meanwhile, as Europe steps up with more funding for Ukraine, Republicans in thrall to Trump and Vladimir Putin refuse to provide more aid. Their calculations on this are so far off, it’s hard to imagine. Many traditional Republican voters, the kind the GOP cannot afford to lose, remember the Cold War, liked Ronald Reagan, and hate the Russians. They believe the United States is a beacon of freedom and democracy around the world and don’t like Putin, Xi, MBS, or any of the other dictators Trump loves so much.
Will all these voters choose Joe Biden in November? No. But even if they don’t, a lot of them will skip the presidential line, and maybe the race altogether. Trump and his lackies can’t afford any of this. Yet they’re walking themselves straight into that scenario.
Lastly (for now) the electorate does not look anything like it did in 2016, the last time Donald Trump actually won an election. NOTE: Donald Trump LOST THE 2020 ELECTION. In the last eight years, millions of older voters have left the stage while millions more younger Americans have attained voting age.
The demographic time bomb that the conservative movement feared is upon them. These young Americans are the reason behind the decades of work to make it harder to vote, to control the judiciary, and to put friendly politicians in place. They know what we all know: The country is moving away from them demographically, culturally, and politically.
Their only hope is another win by Donald Trump this November. That is why all of us who can, must ensure that anyone and everyone we know who cares about the future of this country – for themselves, for their kids, or for their grandkids – gets involved this year.
Trump and the Republican Party have set the table for democracy, decency, and competence to remain in the White House and allow for a future of our choosing. Let’s not miss our chance!
News and Notes:
Please check out my incredible conversation with
author Ruth Ben-Ghiat on the latest Lincoln Project podcast.Next, take a listen to Robert Evans over at the Behind the Bastards podcast discussing the God-like fascination Silicon Valley has with AI. Robert is entertaining and informative.
It’s amazing to me that a guy who looks like a sack of doorknobs when he’s not wearing his girdle and depends can rally anyone to do much of anything. But, sadly, implied and actual threats of mortal terror on family members and eternal damnation for the Christians can.
Nice piece Reed. Please though, start following Far RW Evangelical Twitter (X). Now mouthpieces are talking about trying to repeal the 19A. If that doesn’t work, they are campaigning to convince women to ignore their franchise and have their husbands vote as a family bloc. The last 6 months, there’s been a campaign to convince white Evangelical women (who might be soft on Trump or soft on the abolitionist view of abortion). Trump’s people are trying to depress the women’s vote. They’re also trying to peel off African American and Latino men in Evangelical spaces.