The Trumpian Doom-Loop
The Administration's Actions Are Snowballing Beyond Their Control - We Will Suffer For It
A few weeks ago I wrote that Donald Trump and his administration had opened Pandora’s Box one too many times and the furies were loose. Over the weekend, the Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided to be wagged by Israel’s tail into an open-ended, poorly planned war with Iran.
In the process, the US kicked over yet another hornet’s nest in the Middle East; a habit we haven’t unlearned as a result of two-decades’ worth of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, we have six dead Americans, thousands of dead civilians across the region, dwindling armaments stocks, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and countries in the region shutting down energy extraction facilities for lack of transport for their products.
The effects of the Trump Administration’s weakness, feckless, and incompetence have set what I call the Trumpian Doomloop spinning. Uncertainty drives lower productivity, higher inflation, lower consumer spending, and dampens hiring as companies hold off until they have a better sense of the world. These will continue.
Here’s what’s happening.
The Home Front
At home, Trump had already made life harder for individual Americans by implementing across-the-bard tariffs on foreign imports. Obamacare premiums have skyrocketed, causing more than one million Americans to drop off the exchanges altogether. Rural hospitals are shutting down, right at the time Emergency Rooms will be utilized as primary care providers by those with no options left.
Despite his continued lies, tariffs are, in fact, paid by the consumers, as companies pass along increased costs. This is not new, news. Despite all this, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just announced that a 15% across the board tariff is coming within a week (this after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s unilateral ability to tax Americans.)
In addition to Trump’s innate belief that tariffs are good, the criminals around him understood that tariff revenue was a key component to their other beloved policy: Tax cuts for wealthy Americans. Increased funds from collecting duties are filling (somewhat) the revenue hole they created.
Anyone who says Trump’s Middle Eastern War doesn’t have an effect on Americans is, again, lying to you. Gasoline is already up 11 cents per gallon since the missiles started flying. That price, along with inflation, will continue to rise until we see some resolution between Iran and its neighbors. If reports that the CIA is preparing to arm the Kurds to push back on the Iranians is true, Trump is not looking to settle the fighting anytime soon.
Paying the Piper
Yesterday, Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker said he expected the White House to request a $50 billion supplemental appropriation to pay for Trump’s Iran War. This is money we do not have and the Fed will have to print, ie, borrow. Treasury Bond yields, ie, the interest We the People have to pay for someone to buy our debt, are up. As a note, nearly 25 cents of every tax dollar you send the government is spent on interest; that a 14% increase since 2020.
Given inflation concerns, the Fed under Jerome Powell, will keep interest rates steady to account for higher costs. Though we’ve seen mortgage rates drop below 6% for the first time in years, the broader uncertainty may mean less people willing to make big purchases, again, until they know what the world is going to look like.
To add to our collective burden, Trump announced that he (ie, the American Treasury) would guarantee any insurance claims made by those transiting the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. In plain English: American taxpayers are backstopping shipping companies and insurance carriers for any losses they may suffer trying to sail in a war zone.
A study of younger Americans conducted by John Della Volpe indicated that the cohort is worried about existential risk of Iran and the costs related to it. Per John’s latest post:
#2: War Is Being Filtered Through Economic Fragility
The conversation moved quickly from Tehran to rent. From missiles to groceries. From geopolitics to gas prices. One young man immediately asked:
“Where is he (Trump) getting the money from?”
Another framed it even more bluntly:
“This is distractions to keep the people from what’s actually going on… people becoming homeless.”
In Arkansas, global instability was connected directly to grocery bills. In Minnesota, war was described not as moral confrontation, but as economic burden. Foreign conflict is being absorbed into cost-of-living anxiety.
For a generation that already feels financially exposed, escalation does not signal abstract strength. It signals potential economic shock. And when economic margin is thin, risk tolerance collapses.
Swords into Plowshares
A Tomahawk Missile, Block V, costs $2.5 million, courtesy of RTX (nee Raytheon.) According to press reports, the US Navy has already fired approximately 400 in the first days of the war. Per 19fortyfive.com, that is 5 YEARS worth of production expended in less than a week. That is $1 billion worth ordinance out of the launchers.
Author’s Note: Compared to THAAD interceptor missiles, which clock in at $12.8 million per rocket, the Tomahawk is a bargain.
For comparison’s sake, it costs approximately $160,000 to send one American child to public school, Kindergarten through 12th grade. Every missile fired by the Navy is the same cost as 15 kids getting their ENTIRE primary and secondary educations.
The annual cost of SNAP, that ran out of funds in last year’s government shutdown, is $100 billion (less than 2% of all federal spending.) As noted above, our ‘leaders’ are arguing about whether we can afford SNAP or universal healthcare, but are preparing to approve another $50 billion for a war no one wanted, Congress didn’t approve, and we can’t afford.
Speaking of misplaced financial priorities, the Republican Congress also appropriated $85 billion for ICE for Fiscal Year 2026, outpacing all other federal law enforcement agencies combined. No wonder Dog Killer and Mr. Magoo can afford $200 million airplanes with their special blankets.
Politics, Politics, Politics
We must not ignore the politics of the Iran War, either. Representatives Ro Khanna and Tom Massie, who come from opposite ends of the political universe have been the most effective legislators in years. They jawboned fellow Democrats, frightened Republicans, and the President of the United States, into releasing the Epstein Files.
Last week, before the missiles started flying, they were going to bring a War Powers Resolution to the floor of the US House. It was their own leadership - Hakeem Jeffries in the House, and Chuck Schumer in the US Senate, that delayed it. They are not leaders. They’re controlled opposition.
Rather than saying “No! No! Hell, no!” to another $50 billion, here is what Schumer and Delaware Democrat Chris Coons had to say on a supplemental for Iran:
In Washington speak, this means “Okay.” (H/T Emma Vigeland)
The cheapest and safest way to invest in keeping US troops safe would be to avoid more wars of choice. No Establishment Democrat is going to say that, of course. They’re basically Bush Republicans at this point (and I used to be a Bush Republican.)
Closing the Doom Loop
As Trump took office again last year, a smart friend of mine said that if Moscow and Beijing weren’t in control of the White House, they’d be hard pressed to see how they could be happier with the president’s actions. It’s hard to see how Trump and his cronies don’t hate average Americans. Everything they do, all day, every day, is either outright theft, physical abuse, or increasing mental stress on a population already inundated in uncertainty.
The war in Iran is the latest, but not the last acceleration of America’s descent into madness.
News and Notes:
Read John Della Volpe’s full piece below.
That's the best piece you've ever written Reed! I love thatvyou brought the receipts on how much World War Epstein is costing us to distract from Trump fucking little girls.
Seriously impressive work!