The GOP Primary is an Overcooked Turkey
Ronna Romney and Co. Have Rigged the Game for Trump
The Republican National Committee is, and has been, in the bag for Donald Trump’s re-nomination since Ronna ROMNEY McDaniel was swept to a fourth term as Chair last January. The chattering classes, the donor set, the media may want a real contest, a horserace, if you will. The bottom line? This contest is as over-done as Aunt Catherine’s Christmas turkey. Little will change Trump’s trajectory, not even anxious Iowans or grumpy Granite Staters.
Before we get to why the early states won’t derail His Receivership, let’s discuss how the RNC is going about ensuring he gets the nod next year. Where better to begin than with the debates, the next of which will begin just a few hours from now.
In recent presidential cycles, the number of debates the candidates endured was mind blowing, soul-sucking, and disruptive to their campaigns. For Republicans this year, we’ve seen about one debate every six weeks. Trump didn’t attend the August conclave in Milwaukee, won’t attend tonight’s bash in Simi Valley, California, and we shouldn’t expect him to make the drive from Mar-A-Lago to Miami in early November.
What do those three locations have in common?
Other than Milwaukee (a weird sop to famous flameout Scott Walker,) none of them are within 500 miles of an early primary state. The Miami debate was originally supposed to be held in perennial bellwether Alabama, but I suppose they thought calling it the “George Wallace Memorial Debate and Illegal Gerrymander Jamboree” was a little too on the nose.
Given how jealously early state voters guard their place as the political praetorian guards of the presidential process, it would make sense that Hawkeyes and White Mountain folk would have the chance to see their options on stage, up close, and together. Not so far, and not anytime soon. Ronna ROMNEY knows any early-state get togethers would put undue pressure on Trump and Co. (purely decorative) to show up.
Regardless of where these debates take place, it will soon be more difficult for candidates to participate. Using a matrix of polling and individual contributions, the RNC has ratcheted up the demands on candidates to qualify for the stage. Tonight, Asa Hutchinson didn’t make the cut. In Miami, more will watch from their hotel rooms.
From what I’m hearing, this is an attempt for the RNC to accomplish two things on Trump’s behalf. The first is obvious: Fewer candidates means less reason for Trump to participate. The second is far more telling: Trump has made it clear to his people that he will NOT ever appear on a debate stage with former Vice President Mike Pence or former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Perhaps the idea that he nearly killed them both is too off-putting to his delicate sensibilities. Really, Trump is a nectarine-colored coward and is afraid to face them in person. Trump as chicken. Sounds about right.
Because donors and polling averages aren’t high enough bars for the RNC, the party also requires any participating candidates to sign a pledge supporting the eventual nominee. Of course, the eventual nominee has refused to sign said pledge because he knows the whole thing is in the bag anyway, and if he were to lose, he’d wreck the party (okay by me!) in retribution. (Remember: In authoritarian movements, betrayal is the greatest sin.)
The promises of the half-dozen candidates appearing at the Reagan Library tonight is the last remaining necessity: Complicity. If they know what I’ve laid out above, and they must, why go through the motions? Why put yourself, your family, and your staff through all this? All the abasing donor calls, the late nights, the annoying diner inquisitors, what are they all worth for a contest you’re not only are destined to lose, but is actively rigged against you? The Vice Presidency? Bleh. C’mon. A cabinet gig? Ask how that went for the people who did it the first time around.
If, as my dad always says, people who run for office are different than the rest of us, than this band of soon-to-be-former candidates takes the cake.
If somehow, some way, one of the also-rans manages to mount a real challenge in Iowa or New Hampshire, which could happen, the RNC has engineered the primary calendar in Trump’s favor. Call it their Delegate Trump card, if you will.
Once we’re past the first four contests, where delegates are won proportionally, the contests go to winner-take-all. Let me clarify: This doesn’t mean you need 50%+1 to win all of California’s or Florida’s delegates. It just means Trump must win by enough in the later states. He could garner 39% of Texas primary voters’ support and swipe the lot of its delegates.
Some of us have been saying for months, at this point years, that if Trump ran again, he’d be the 2024 Republican nominee (and were criticized for cheerleading his return.) Much our belief rested on the makeup of the primary electorate, MAGA’s death grip on the GOP, and the unwillingness of any leaders to step up and take him on. When we break this primary election down into its component parts, we see it’s been rigged from the get-go.
Are you really surprised?