The Apollo 13 Election (Part II)

Guiding the Ship of State Over the Red Wave

Tough Love Alert: If you’re a Democratic elite or party operative, you’ll probably not like what you read. I’m sure I’ll get a bunch of ‘you have no right to talk about this’ in my comments.

Thank you, you’ve just made my point for me.

After the initial shock of a catastrophe has warn off, the inevitable finger pointing and asking ‘how could this happen?’ begins in earnest. It’s a natural reaction to disastrous or upsetting events. The desire to understand the root cause of something, of anything, is hardwired into us.

Temperament and Humility Matter

In the wake of the disastrous 2006 mid-terms, President George W. Bush went before the press corps and the American people and admitted what happened to the GOP: “Look, this is a close election. If you look at race by race, it was close. The cumulative effect, however, was not too close. It was a thumping.”

The first step in solving a problem is admitting you have one.

This is very difficult for Democrats to do and consequently indicative of why the party is in pieces at this moment. The coming days, weeks, and months will be unpleasant for Democratic leaders and elders as the post-defeat spasm of recrimination and blame takes hold.

This process should be loud, it should be ugly, and it should be public. The whole country (and the whole world) saw what happened on Tuesday night. To put the results down to nothing but national racism and misogyny is the easy way out. It requires no self-reflection and allows those in control to maintain their moral and intellectual superiority.

Team Democrat, this is what got you into trouble in the first place. I (don’t) hate to break it to you: In a lot of places around the country, the voters took a look at the party chose something destructive, odious and ugly in its place.

Tactics are Not Strategy. Strategy is Not Belief

In the 48 hours since I wrote Part I, a lot of very smart people are casting about for what to do next. Organize, resist, build a counter-media ecosystem, revamp our testing regimens, yada, yada, yada…

In the five years I’ve fought alongside Democrats, my Lincoln Project colleagues and I were asked this question more than any other: “Why are you so good at messaging and we’re not?”

I’ve given the same answer many times: Messaging is downstream of belief and y’all can’t agree on what you believe. There are several reasons for this, all of them attributable to the same worldview and attitude I mentioned above. The elites of the party believe they know better than anyone else.

They all believe they’re smarter than the other people in the room. Even if you do agree on a message, there’s disagreement on who’s pure enough or who checks enough arbitrary boxes to be deliver a message publicly.

If it’s not the arrogance that drives the lack of message, its an unstinting reliance on data, polling, and other quantitative measures to break voters down into data points rather than DNA. Collective shock then sets in when said flesh and blood voters don’t act as expected.

When the Democratic grandees talk of building something ‘like Republicans have’ they’re missing the point. You can build the most beautiful car in the world. If you’ve neglected to design an engine that is reliable, durable, and made for the long, hard miles of democracy, it will just sit on the lot.

Right now the Democrats are driving 1987 Yugo, but you’re the only vehicle we have right now.

First, Know Thyself

In early 2016, when it was clear that Donald Trump would win the Republican Nomination, I wrote a piece called The Party That Mistook its Voters for a Safety Net, based on the brilliant Oliver Sacks book of a similar name.

As a lifelong Republican, I missed every signal the GOP base was sending. They were unhappy about the party’s devotion to the wealthy and corporations. They were unhappy with what they saw as simply going along to get along with the elite. Yes, they were culturally scared about the election of a man named Barack Obama.

Rather than understanding what was happening, addressing legitimate concerns and diffusing the worst instincts, we ignored what was staring us in the face and over the course of a few years, the GOP went from the party of John McCain to the party of Donald Trump.

At minimum, Democratic elites must take a hard look in the mirror. Despite what they want to believe, most Americans, even those likely to vote for a Democrat, are not worried about niche issues.

If you’re raising two kids on your own, taking care of your mother-in-law, and worried about your rent going up (because a private equity fund bought your building) the latest outrage on campus isn’t going to break through.

In fact, it’s alienating.

Let’s stay on culture for a moment: Despite the fact that many Democratic voters are minorities, the party leadership chooses to ignore the fact that large swaths of their coalitions: Black, Latino, and Asian voters, plus many white voters, are far more culturally conservative than those attending the soiree on the Upper West Side.

It’s not that these communities are “anti” anything. It’s that messaging around family, hard work, and self-reliance is resonant because their experience. If you ask a Latino man with a truck and a crew of two how he feels about college debt forgiveness, the answer will be NSFW. Rightly so.

So far I’ve seen this knee-jerk reactions to Tuesday: Voters don’t understand, the Republicans misrepresent our beliefs, the media failed, or misinformation makes it impossible to compete. There’s the aforementioned racism and misogyny as well.

If the leaders of the party are unwilling or unable to accept at least some responsibility and accountability for where we are today, they should take clear out their desk and move to their house on the Eastern Shore. Your arrogance is no longer allowed to put 330 million Americans further into harm’s way.

Half of Life is Showing Up

Earlier today, a friend of mine remarked, “Joe Rogan didn’t do anything magical. He just showed up.”

Yes!

Just a bit more on the left’s sudden podcast scramble. First, the right’s constructed a symbiotic communications environment, which is part of a larger movement. As Taylor Lorenz wrote yesterday, “This imbalance when it comes to online influence is no accident. It is the result of massive structural disadvantages in funding, promotion, and institutional support. And understanding why Democrats can't (or really won't) cultivate an equivalent independent media ecosystem that rivals what the right has built is crucial for anyone who hopes to ever see the Democrats back into power.”

This self-supporting sphere also allows for 24/7/365 communications with Americans of all political stripes. Why didn’t Trump need a ground game? Because he and his allies never stop talking to their people.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party shows up eight weeks out of every two years and expects traditional allies to show up. I’ve seen it up close: Every cycle the party has to convince their voters all over again. Why? Because these Americans feel taken for granted. Door knocks and texts in September of 2024 have little effect if Joe Q. Voter hasn’t heard from you since November of 2022.

Further, over the last 10-12 years, Democrats have ceded far too much territory. Not that long ago there were Democratic senators in both Dakotas, Missouri, Nebraska, and until January, Montana. When those members lost, or retired, the party left with them. Each of those states will have Republican senators for the foreseeable future.

Activist Jess Piper recently posted: “Missouri isn’t red, it’s uncontested.”

Yes!

You can’t win where you don’t compete. In places where competent, confident Democrats have been able to run their own races, and get the support they need, they win. Ruben Gallegos would be an immediate case-in-point. He ran not as a Democrat in Arizona, but as an Arizona Democrat. This is different than a California or Illinois Democrat; and it should be.

Until and unless The Democratic Party gets out presidential sugarplums out of their heads, more and more once-reliable seats will fall, never to return. During the Obama administration alone, Republicans picked up:

• 15 statehouse chambers

• 14 state senate chambers

• 960 legislative seats

• 62 seats in Congress

• 11 US Senate seats

It should be no surprise why the US Supreme Court now features a 6-3 MAGA majority.

You can loathe Mitch McConnell as much as I do and agree his adage is true: “Winners make policy, losers go home.”

The Republican Party is predatory. It is looking for more weak Democrats to pick off. It is essential for not just Democrats, but pro-democracy Americans as well, to begin putting some wins on the board. This will take work. Hard work. Humbling work. Frustrating work. The hole we dug to get here will take a long time to climb out of.

We can’t begin that task until and unless we’re first honest with ourselves.

Part III will drop on Sunday. Stick with me, good news coming!

News and Notes

The latest episode of The Home Front Podcast is up. Today, I talked to Congressman Eric Swalwell of California about Tuesday’s results and what comes next. Please listen, follow, and rate five stars.