On Tuesday, Tyler Robinson, the young man in custody for Charlie Kirk’s murder will be arraigned on multiple charges. The authorities still have holes to fill in on Robinson’s movements, where he obtained the weapon, and the background that led him to a rooftop in Orem, Utah last week.
Regardless of what they determine to be his motive for killing Kirk, the American political world has already decided for themselves why he did it. For some, mostly on the left, was a Groyper, inspired by uber-troll Nick Fuentes. For Kirk’s supporters, he’s been poised by leftist ideology that hates conservatives and will do anything to stop MAGA, even murder.
In America 2025, his true motive, if ever revealed, won’t matter: not to the loudest voices, nor to the rank-and-file political partisans. When we saw the news, we didn’t know what to make of it, but social media filled in the blanks: Military sniper! False flag! Communist! Trans activist! Professional hit!
In the moments after a shock, we rely on our instincts, experience, and biases to explain how Kirk’s shooting happened. As those mental puzzle pieces lock together, they’re near-impossible to pull apart or rearrange. In today’s world, algorythms know before we do what to feed us. As we consume what the machines believe we’re looking for, our emotions dump superglue on the mosaic.
Author’s Note: There hasn’t been a vigil at the Kennedy Center for murdered school kids. We’d have to hold one every month.
Listening to one of Yascha Mounk’s recent podcasts, his guest Amanda Ripley explained, “I think the stories we tell ourselves matter more than anything else…sometimes they’re shaped by history and personal experience.”
Those stories may or may not, and are often not, based on any factual evidence. Facts, in fact, may not matter at all, once we’ve decided we believe something. As Mounk and his panel discussed, though violent crime has declined significantly in the US in recent years, survey respondents consistently report that criminal activity is out of control.
As we’ve seen from President Donald Trump on down, MAGA must believe Tyler Robinson killed one of the movement’s key acolytes, that he was martyred on the altar of liberty by a godless, leftist, trans activist. This has led the White House, Vice President JD Vance, and the administrations Worm-in-Chief, Steven Miller, to threaten liberal organizations.
They, like us, have no idea what actually motivated Robinson’s hatred for Kirk. To them, that matters not: So long as they can pour the gasoline on the cultural conflagration they’ve helped stoke all these years. Tens of millions of Americans warm themselves by the flames; confirmed in their beliefs that Democrats are not their political opponents, but their mortal enemies.
Is there an olive branch to extend? Can Trump’s most fantical supporters, and those now further exercised by Kirk’s murder be reasoned with? It’s complicated. Turning the other cheek, as a certain Jewish carpenter encouraged us to do 2000 years ago, is not in MAGA’s make-up.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be civil, nor listen to the better angels of our nature. We need to act according to the environment in which we’re operating: Trump and Company have not, and will not operate in good faith, therefore we should expect nothing but bad acts and actions from them.
We also shouldn’t spend a lot of time (as I’m guilty of) of trying to convince committed Republicans or Kirk followers that their world view is wrong, that Robinson was in fact a ‘Groyper*’ or he was ‘one of theirs.’ Even if Trump himself said the alleged killer was a conservative, his flock wouldn’t believe it. It’s not our job to try and convince them.
*Someone asked me to define Groyper. I said, “Remove all decency and humanity from your most die-hard MAGA fan, then imagine someone who would’ve been a willing concentration camp guard.”
In the days since Kirk’s murder last week, a number of my friends and colleagues have offered this advice: “Stay frosty.”
Per Gemini:
“Stay Frosty” is a slang phrase, originating in military culture, that means to remain calm, alert, and focused without letting fear or emotions interfere with your actions. It's a powerful, evocative term encouraging readiness and a cool head in a dangerous or high-stress situation, much like a leader would say to their troops before a battle
This is a good plan. We’re only eight months into Trump’s second term. Things have accelerated faster even than I could have imagined. Let’s stay frosty and focus on the things we can control: Our behavior, our beliefs, our friends, family, and communities. Let’s take care of those we know, and those we don’t.
It took us a long time to get here, it’s going to be a long way out. One day and time, dear friends. One day at a time.
Programming Notes:
I have a full slate of Substack Lives coming up:
Tuesday 11 am Eastern: Ron Fournier on why Americans are abandoning politics. Link to watch HERE.
Wednesday 11 am Eastern: Need to Know by David Rothkopf on Washington’s latest mess.
Thursday 11 am Eastern: Denver Riggleman on staying safe in uncertain times.
Friday 11 am Eastern: The Ken Harbaugh Show on Ukraine.
I hope you’ll tune in! Notices will be in your email daily.
Reed
Feeling sad. I had vibes that something bad was going to happen. Not hard to have vibes like this with all the hateful words being spewed around. Your words were calming. "Stay frosty"! says it all. Thanks, Reed. Take care.
Staying frosty, Reed👍