September Look Ahead

"All the months are crude experiments out of which the perfect September is made." - Virginia Woolf

Football is back. The kids are off to school. The last weeks of summer will soon give way to the first brisk wind that reminds us winter is nearby. Leaves will begin to change, for many of us the rains will return.

For American politics, though, September is the gateway to more difficult choices and (yet) more consequential fights. The question: Will those chosen to lead take up their mantles, or lay their tools aside and be mere spectators to history.

Let’s break it down, shall we?

The Kids Aren’t Won’t Be Alright

On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported the results of their last WSJ/NORC poll. Only 25% of respondents believe rising generations will have a better standard of life.

“Nearly 70% said they believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.”

The survey was conducted in early July so one could make the case these are the optimistic numbers as we head into further uncertainty.

Courtesy, Wall Street Journal/NORC

The respondents have little confidence in the future, which could lead to decreased spending and consumption (the engines of the American economy.) Although unlikely to spur a deflationary spiral, consumers don’t appear able to plan for their medium and long-term future. The traditional path to financial stability, home ownership, now appears out of reach to 81% of respondents. Between a being renters, more ‘sandwich generations’ are seeing opportunity to start a life of their own while having to take care for older members of their own family.

Courtesy WSJ/NORC

The highlighted portions of these responses should serve as both a flashing red light and an area of opportunity for those willing to see it that way. More than half the country is telling us they either don’t make attention to stock market indices or they’re immaterial to their financial situations.

Political, media, economic elites use the NYSE, S&P 500, and NASDAQ as quick and easy proof points that the country’s economic health is much better than it may actually be. However, if half the country is either unable or unwilling to participate, we’re leaving tens of millions of people (likely wage earners, those at or below the poverty line, or those on fixed incomes) subject to (yet another) equities crash that will force the government to bailout the Haves while screwing over the Have Nots.

Analysis:

I believe the WSJ’s results are lagging indicators. Americans have been showing us how they feel for years now. An ideologue like Donald Trump doesn’t gain traction unless the population is fundamentally unhappy. We can talk about ‘abundance’ all we want, but too few people believe the system works at all, let alone for them. It is the elites’ prerogative to ignore the little guys and gals. It is the everyman and everywoman’s right to vote ‘against their interests’ or opt out of politics altogether. As of today, they’re choosing both.

We are living in an anti-establishment, economically populist era. Those who decry Trump and his moves and motives are missing the forest for the soon-to-be falling leaves. Given the option of the ‘status quo’ as represented by most mainline Democrats, or the blowtorch-wielding blowhard, Americans keep choosing the flames.

September is Shut-Down Season

Because the Feds budget the way I did when I got my first credit card at 19, we’re facing yet another government shutdown on September 30th, the end of the federal fiscal year. This time, though, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer appears to be playing hardball.

Just kidding! He’ll fold, but here’s the prevent-defense he’s laying out to colleagues:

The only way to avoid a shutdown is to work in a bipartisan way, with a bill that can get both Republican and Democratic votes in the Senate. However, as we near the funding deadline, Republicans are once again threatening to go-at-it-alone—heading our country towards a shutdown and making the health care crisis even worse. With the Trump Administration’s attempt of the so-called “pocket rescission,” it is clear that Republicans are prioritizing chaos over governing, partisanship over partnership, and their own power over the American people.

Senate Democrats have shown firsthand that we are willing to work in a bipartisan way to keep our government open by advancing bipartisan appropriations bills. However, the Trump administration is waging an all-out war against Congress’ Article I authority and the constitutional balance of power. Senate Republicans must decide: stand up for the legislative branch or enable Trump’s slide toward authoritarianism.

Analysis:

Ladies and Gentlemen: Democratic ‘leadership’ summed up in three sentences. As a quick reminder, Schumer has been in elective office continuously since 1975 (I was born in ‘76.) He is not a fighter, he’s a manager. He’s not a leader, he’s a fundraiser.

If he believes Republicans are willing to ‘work in a bipartisan manner’ I have a bridge to sell him. Because he didn’t rile up the Democratic base enough with his capitulation earlier this year, he’s already signaling they’ll do so again.

If Schumer and nine of his colleagues bend to their donors, Wall Street, and Trump once again it will shatter what’s left of the fragile Democratic coalition. With too many voters either staying home or voting Republican, a budget deal that gets little-to-nothing for Americans and Democratic priorities will be a bridge too far for activists, young voters, and stalwarts.

DC Democrats continue to harbor the illusion that we’re some how in normal times, or this is just a fever that will soon break. That world is gone, never to return. Their only role, let me repeat, the Democrats’ only role should be one of opposition. Stake out territory, deny Trump’s priorities, upset your own donors if necessary.

To do otherwise is to turn a slow-motion trainwreck into a scene from The Fugitive.

Read my piece from this spring on Schumer’s failure.