Political Service Announcement :: Uprooting Schumer

Unseating A Leader Is No Easy Proposition

Before we get to the heart of the matter, I want to share several examples of what we’re facing and why someone like Chuck Schumer (and so many other ‘opposition’ leaders) are unprepared for this time.

First, as background, Schumer has never held a job other than elective office; stretching back to 1975 (longer than I’ve been alive.) He’s been a politican for 50 years, half a century, not a day out of office or off the government payroll since before the Bicentennial.

Next, here is a snippet of his interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes (who does a good job of being respectful while pushing back substantively - take a note everyone.)

What exactly does Senator Schumer think represents ‘democracy at stake’ because if it’s not this, then how much further down the road must we go? Back to my first point: It is unlikley that someone who went from Harvard, to Harvard Law School to elected office for the last 50 years is capable of seeing the world through anything other than the prism of his life. It’s always worked for him and he’s done all his benefactors (more on this below) have asked.

Lastly, please take 90 seconds to watch Ta-Nahisi Coates in discussion with Joy Reid.

Coates’ point goes far beyond policy. If everything you’ve done brought you to this place, why would do more of the same, with more of the same people, expecting different outcomes?

The Main Event :: Ground Chuck

Despite the disdain, disgust, and disappointment in Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s submission to the Republican majority last week, the chances of his ouster are slim.

Yes, Chuck Schumer is just one person, but much like a tree (let’s call this one a weeping willow) his presence represents deep, stubborn roots. Pulling him out a role he’s held since the legendary Senator Harry Reid retired takes an enormous of energy and political will.

The Money

The late California Assembly Speaker Jesse Unruh had two inimitable quotes, both about campaign finance:

“Money is the mother’s milk of politics.”

“If you can’t eat their food, drink their booze, screw their women and then vote against them, you have no business being up here.”

Schumer understands Jesse’s first truism. He lives and breathes it.

He completely ignores the second, and that’s why he’ll be so difficult to displace. As I noted in my last piece, Schumer’s super PAC raised and spent $311 million in the 2024 cycle, enormous chunks of it coming through the group’s associated 501c4 ‘dark money’ army, Majority Forward.

Both the receipts and expenditures matter here. Whether or not a donor is disclosed, they have an expectation that Schumer will do two things: First, spend their money wisely. This does not happen. Wisem, efficient spending almost never happens in politics so his groups are not alone in their incompetence.

Second, largely do what is in the best interest of their industry, organization, or pocket book. He does this in spades. The donors have, up to now, been willing to forgive inefficiency for fealty. Schumer’s actions last week were borne not a belief that a government shut down would be worse for Americans, but at the direction of his donors he would not be the one to tank the stock market further than Trump already had.

Schumer’s political largesse also helps cement his position. His groups dole out tens of millions of dollars to favored organizations that then spend the money on favored candidates or within desirable sub-groups. For many of them, Schumer’s money represents a significant portion of all their funding for an entire election cycle. They have a vested interest in him remaining in place. A new leader means a new relationship, new consultants (more on that below) and too much uncertainty.

Democratic Senators up for reelection need assurances from Schumer that he’ll be there to protect then. This is a straight quid pro quo. Again, nothing new, but in this instance, all the more odious. “Do what I say, and the money will flow. Don’t, and good luck to you.” This is an important distinction: Party bosses would often rather see a member lose than deal with one who gets elected on their own merits and therefore owes them little.

Author’s Note: I saw this personally on a campaign I ran a decade ago. The candidate refused to hire the NRCC’s preferred media consultant. When we went looking for help in a very winnable race, none was forthcoming.

The Allies

Schumer has been in the US Senate for 30 years. Over that time, he’s done favors, collected chits, doled out money, trinkets, and committee posts to favored friends and allies. Some are friends from ‘the old days.’ Regardless, getting a majority of Democratic senators to oust their boss is a heavy lift.

Like the donors, they may not like the way Schumer operates or agree with his priorities, but they understand him. Rearranging the deck chairs so soon after hitting the iceberg is not something some of the newer or younger members are willing to do, given their own leadership ambitions. If you’re going to undertake a coup, you have to win. Right now, there are two many ‘unknown uknowns’ to steal a phrase from Donald Rumsfeld.

Outside the Capitol, the maze of labor unions, think tanks, environmental organizations and narrow-bore Democratic-aligned institutions rely on him for access, favors, and protection. Like the members, much of what they need comes not from campaign cash, but a far bigger piggy bank: The US Treasury. Schumer has undoubtedly funneled untold money into his favored institutions. They are in his debt: Politically and financially.

The stasis this creates isn’t surprising, but it is indicative of the Democratic Party as a whole: Best to stick with what you know, because what if the ‘new thing’ is worse?

The Staff

Congressional leadership positions are not simply the Member and a small coterie of staff. They’re sprawling organizations within the Capitol housed within personal offices, leadership offices, the Rules Committee, and anywhere else the boss can warehouse his people. Given that Schumer’s been on Capitol Hill since Ronald Reagan was in office, it’s conceivable that there are dozens of staffers who’ve moved in and out of his orbit through the decades. These alumni are only a text or a phone call away from the Minority Leader.

For those on Schumer’s immediate team, they have an enormous amount of personal, political, and financial capital built up in keeping their boss atop the heap. If he’s out, all the extra perks and headcount of a leadership position go up in smoke. Often the winners of these games of thrones bring in their own passel of loyalists and turn out the loser’s staffs. Holding a cardboard box in a Capitol hallway is not how any of Schumer’s people want this to end.

The Consultants

If the Capitol and leadership staff are the ‘respectable’ ones, the committee, campaign, and finance consultants are the toll booth operators. Year in and year out, they develop the same bullshit powerpoint decks, bloated budgets, and half-baked campaign plans that keep dedicated Democratic donors ponying up.

They too have their own coaching trees, once-young guns who’ve moved in and out of Washington, on and off campaigns, to and from committees, all of whom owe their places in the world to someone sitting atop hundreds of millions of dollars in ready cash.

Like so many in the capital, they all have dreams of sugar plums and beachhouses dancing in their heads. They all carry about the idea that one day they’ll have their own byzantine, opaque, impenetrable web of 527s, 501c4s, 501c3, joint-fundraising committees, and LLCs that will keep healthy retainers and 15% media commissions flowing for at least one more cycle.

As with the donors, the allied groups, and the staff, the web of consultants depends on Schumer staying in place. Like the aging coach of a football team, the org chart below him depends on him keeping his job, even if he’s going 3-14 every year.

The Clock and The Calendar

Time is on Chuck Schumer’s side. While they’re in session the balance of this month, the US Senate is on recess or out for 18 of April’s 30 days. The Senators will be home, dealing with angry constituents and doing call time to raise money. While they’re away, Schumer is safe. As one week stretches into the next, and the Trump Administration and Republicans erase more redlines from America’s political map, the outrage will shift.

Schumer is counting on this distraction.

If he can survive until July, he’ll be okay until Labor Day as the Senate is scheduled to take August off altogether. When he returns, Schumer will be faced with yet another government shutdown looming, and this time he will pretend to fight. They will put up a half-hearted and half-assed filibuster to prove they’ve ‘done something’ and then 10 Democratic senators will vote to continue Republican priorities.

But by then, Schumer will be in the clear. The donor base will be antsy. The incumbents up for reelection will be climbing the walls. The would-be Democratic nominees will want to know to whom they can turn. The puzzle pieces of a Congressional leader will fall into place, the cycle will continue and more likely than not Democrats will not retake the US Senate in 2026.

Wither the Voter

Left out of all of these silly games are the voters. The people are relegated to the way back of America’s rusty family truckster. They must face backwards, at the world they knew, but are given too little idea and almost not control over where they’re going.

And this is perhaps the greatest indictment on Schumer’s ‘leadership.’ He doesn’t just doesn’t care.

News and Notes:

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Please check out my terrific conversation with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle on The Home Front Podcast.