When it comes to armed conflict there are rules, theories, and laws. According to the Academy for Social Civics, the “Just War Theory provides a framework for states in conflict. It stresses that every effort to prevent wars must be made. According to Just War Theory, violence is only permissible when it is a lesser evil than the alternatives. For a battle to be considered morally permissible, it must be ethical before, during, and after the conflict.
The Just War Theory outlines six steps to Jus Ad Bellum (The Right to Go to War.)
Just Cause: Are we defending ourselves or correcting an injustice?
Lawful Authority: Has the decision to go to war been made by a ‘legitimate and competent’ authority?
Right Intention: Are we going to war for a just reason, or just retribution or conquest?
Last Resort: Have all other been explored and/or exhausted?
Probability of Success: If we go to war, we will achieve our objectives?
Proportionality: The overall good must outweigh the harm or evil that occurs as a result of the conflict.
Given the universal amorality of the Trump regime, none of the above have been taken into consideration by anyone in a position of authority.
The Trump Administration is 0 for 6, though they haven’t attempted to make their case other than inherent ramblings and violating, at the very least, longstanding maritime law.
But…Because we’re here anyway, let’s go through these requirements.
Just Cause
Several things can exist at once: Venezuela is home to drug cartels, illicit narcotics are a problem in the United States, and we do not have just cause to invade a sovereign, if broken, nation. Nicholas Maduro’s incompetence and brutality have helped turn Venezuela into a failed state, but he does not represent a clear and present danger to the United States.
His removal would, as I noted in my previous article, create only further chaos in an already over-armed, militia-laden society and draw American forces into yet another morass.
There is no just cause.
Lawful Authority
Article I, Section 8, Clause 11 of the United States Constitution reads:
[The Congress] Shall have the power To declare War…
To date, the US Congress has NOT authorized the President to conduct military operations against Venezuelan targets. Instead, the US Navy, at Pete Hegseth’s direction, has been blowing boats out of the water.
However, Trump’s rhetoric has driven bi-partisan groups in both the US House and Senate to file war powers resolutions. The Republican members, Rep. Thomas Massie, and Senator Rand Paul, both of Kentucky, hold longstanding isolationist positions on American military action.
Even Senator Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi) is demanding hearings on the Navy’s Caribbean operations. The Article I branch has been prostrate, but now appears to waking up.
There is no lawful authority.
Right Intention
If no just cause is present for military action against Venezuela, logic follows that no ‘right intention’ exists, either. Trump’s claims of stopping the massive flow of illegal drugs into the US is fallacious. His administration has not answered questions about regime change or the disposition of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
At this moment, the administration has provided no positive, necessary reason for military action.
No right intention exists.
Last Resort
Last month, Trump offered Nicholas Maduro safe passage out of the country. Maduro laid out a set of additional conditions, all of which were rejected by Trump, according to a Reuters report. The Miami Herald reported that Maduro has attempted to contact Trump again, but has not been successful.
If Maduro did agree to resign and leave the country, what would that mean for American action? If Trump’s accusations are predicated on ending ‘the drug trade’ in Venezuela, how would Maduro’s departure effect that outcome?
It appears that we’re approaching a ‘Last Resort’ situation in reality, but only because Trump is done talking with Maduro. Even Maduro offered a trade: Say to hand over senior members of Venezuelan drug cartels in exchange for peace, it’s unlikely he could achieve such an outcome.
We may have reached last resort territory, but as a result of Trump’s incoherent (or non-existent) strategy.
Probability of Success
To achieve ‘success’ one must first establish a coherent set of goals and objectives. Wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan have demonstrated the ability of the American military to overwhelm its enemies but remain incapable of creating and/or maintaining peace.
According to a new National Security Strategy, the Trump Administration states that replacing the Maduro regime with a democratic government more aligned with the United States is a key objective. However, given previous attempts and failures at nation building, claiming success would require a lengthy, expensive occupation.
Based on previous attempts, there is a low probability of success.
Proportionality
An invasion of Venezuela and subsequently toppling of Nicholas Maduro’s regime is not a proportional response to a decades-long domestic issue with drug abuse and the illegal smuggling of narcotics into the United States. The United States Coast Guard, as well as other nations’ maritime forces have patrolled the Caribbean for many years. Despite their best efforts, the flow of drugs north into America has not slowed.
Given the amount of drugs that could be credibly traced to Venezuela, as opposed to say Mexico, an American invasion would be a solution far out of proportion to the existing problem.
No proportionality exists.
“Collateral Damage”
There is no more inhuman term we accept to describe the destruction of men, women, children, their homes, businesses, and neighborhoods than ‘collateral damage.’ It does what all good euphemisms hope to: Sanitize something that is otherwise ugly, unsettling, or not fit for family consumption.
In Venezuela, the number of civilians likely to be injured or killed in major military action, to become ‘collateral damage’ will be high.
The Venezuelan government does not possess a monopoly on violence. Bad actors wanting to maintain or improve their position in post-Maduro chaos will think little of using civilians as shields.
American military action will kill innocent Venezuelans. Images of death and destruction will spread quick around the country, destroying whatever little legitimacy the US may have in 24 frames. It is impossible to prevent these deaths and this type of damage. ‘High-precision’ weapons are very accurate but, not pinpoint enough to guarantee only military targets are effected.
American Morality is Over
Eighty years ago, the United States held global military, economic, and moral hegemony. Year by year, American policy chipped away at our moral authority. Today, we maintain military and economic dominance, but the morality with which we deploy that power is now all but gone.
Though Donald Trump didn’t begin the decline of American virtue, his actions, and those around him, have left us with little, if any, goodwill around the world. No one believes what we say, nor believes we will do what’s in the best interests of the most people. Why would they?
Overseas, our leaders pal around with the modern world’s worst butchers. At home, they deploy armed officers against civilians and cut deals to enrich themselves and their cronies.
There is no moral, lawful, or legislative basis for Donald Trump’s potential war on Venezuela. We should remind our leaders all day, every day, that we the people, do in fact care how we’re seen around the world. We don’t want this war in our name.
Next Up: Part III - We Can’t Afford a War in Venezuela
Read Part I below.
The Sunday Reed :: No War in Venezuela
During a Thanksgiving Day call with members of the military, President Donald Trump (R-Sundown) said the following:
Great article Reed! All we have to do is look at Ukraine to see what the administration and oligarchs want. They want the oil,minerals and whatever else they can steal. These corrupt actors don’t care about our sons,daughters,mothers or fathers being killed because of their greed.
The Just War Theory and the six steps framing the Right to Go to War was something I had never heard before. When did this "book" or policy slowly get burned? Thanks for laying this all-out Reed. This whole "war fiasco" of Trump and his minions came on us like a bad dream, except it isn't a dream. It is a nightmare that none of us want. I am with you Reed: " I care how we are seen around the world! And I don't want this war in our name." Thanks, again. Take care.