In Politics, Life Comes at You Fast
The Art of Not Drowning in An Ocean of News
“Life moves pretty fast,” Ferris Bueller told us, “If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. American politics came at us pretty fast this week. We saw it all unfold, one day after another, and while we didn’t miss it, it’s a good reminder that presidential campaigns in the third decade of the 21st century stop for nothing and no one.
Events and statements that once would have derailed a candidate don’t make the news. Wars stay in our consciousness for days or weeks, before drifting into the slipstream of endless information and emergencies.
Last weekend, the anguished cries of Democrats could be heard from Washington, DC to Washington State as the New York Times and Sienna released polling showing President Joe Biden trailing inevitable GOP nominee Donald Trump in five of six swing Electoral College states.
Lesson: Polls are snapshots in time. Polls for an election a year away are interesting, marginally instructive, but not viable indicators of anything other than an intense fickleness for most people and parties in American politics.
As MAGA cheered, moderates wriggled to find their place in a potential re-upped Trump world, and Democrats fretted, American voters went to the polls on Tuesday and overturned a conventional wisdom on which the paint hadn’t yet dried. In Ohio and Virginia, Republicans’ cheerleading of abortion restrictions (post-Dobbs) resulted in electoral losses (again.) In garnet Kentucky, Andy Beshear, a Democrat, was reelected to the governor’s office.
In response, Republican talking heads warned their party and candidates about digging themselves deeper into the crevasse on abortion rights. On cue, some Republican leaders said they needed to be more aggressive on the issue, including running another ballot measure in Ohio to repeal Tuesday’s result.
Lesson 1: Eighteen months after the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democratic voters, and younger voters in particular, have lost little of their vigor for pushing back on Republican attempts to further restrict individual liberties.
Lesson 2: Republicans in the time of MAGA will not moderate on any issue nor will they move away from their base. Even as they suffered their latest electoral loss, the GOP is determined to implant their political dog into the bumper that is abortion rights. Electorally, a confident, competent Democrat beats the MAGA freakshow.
Just in case enough non-Trump Republican voters and independents hadn’t already decided to run for the hills, the Republican National Committee held another ‘debate’ featuring GOP ‘primary candidates,’ this time in the ‘early’ state of Florida. (No, I’m not sorry for all the quotation marks. I can’t write ‘air quotes’ every time.)
With requirements ratcheted up, only five never-to-be US presidents took the stage on Wednesday. On cue, each played their part. Chris Christie was normal and hammered Trump. Nikki Haley did a decent job of pretending to be normal long enough for super PAC money to start flowing. Because lifts in his shoes weren’t enough, Ron DeSantis added some to his hair along with too much Botox. His inability to simulate human behavior makes Commander Data seem warm and fuzzy.
Vivek Ramaswamy reminded us that while violence is never the right answer, you can understand why it might cross someone’s mind. To round out the field, Senator Tim Scott produced his Canadian girlfriend and a closing statement that made even House Speaker Mike Johnson say, “Take it easy on the Christian nationalism, Tim.”
Lesson: Nothing in the Republican primary changed on Wednesday. If cheers from the audience were any indication, hardcore Republicans are all for killing people without due process of law, like the idea of war with Mexico, and (as above) are for increased abortion restrictions. Suburban voters, if they watched on NBC, didn’t feel better.
If all that wasn’t enough, America’s kooky great aunts and uncles decided to get in on the action. Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan released an ad explaining why neither the GOP nor the Democratic Party are handling Israel well. Given his rugged defense at the Battle of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge, Hogan is obviously well-placed to comment on foreign policy.
Joining the crazy parade led by Bob Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West, Jill Stein announced she’s running again on the Green Party line. Stein had to jump in after Vladimir Putin’s first choice (West) wouldn’t play the Greens’ reindeer games.
Not to be left out of this ad hoc pro-Trump coalition, Senator Joe Manchin (D-Zoolander) announced he would not run for reelection to his West Virginia seat. Instead, he announced he’ll travel the country talking to Americans to find out if there is a middle way in American politics. Now, I’m just getting started in this politics deal, but a 76-year-old gazillionaire coal baron from a small, remote state might not be the voice of a new generation.
Lesson: The 2024 General Election ballot is shaping up to be unlike anything we’ve seen in living memory. Now, there’s a good chance not all these candidates will make it to November. Raising money, name ID, and ballot access are real hurdles for most of the individuals. If we were a parliamentary system, all these voices and choices might be part of a future coalition government. That’s not America. Our ‘first past the post’ system means whoever wins the most votes wins a state’s Electoral Votes. Even with a half-dozen options, most states will be out of reach for anyone other than Trump and Biden. Every vote in the key Electoral College states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – will be worth gold. Whoever tells you they know how this works out is selling something.
Trying to process all this at once is difficult, if not impossible. It’s akin to floating in the ocean. When a wave comes in, you can float with it or let it knock you down. We live amidst an ocean breaking news, externalities, and black swans. As they approach, take each as it comes. If we allow each new revelation to knock us over, we won’t have the time, energy, or breath to do the work necessary to defeat all the opponents of American democracy when we need them.
Notes and Such:
Latest Lincoln Project Podcast, up now! Hear my conversation with Jonathan Shapiro to be your best Abe Lincoln.
If you thought Speaker Mike Johnson was weird, read this from Rolling Stone.
Vivek Ramaswamy represents millions of American men just looking for someone to say “eff you.”
How many more MAGA candidates will the GOP push into the Dobbs buzzsaw? The supply seems infinite.
Mike Madrid was on Politicology today. His experience & explanations reminded me not to knee jerk on any polls. Like you say, a snapshot in time.