Donald Trump's Election Denial Isn't Bluster, it's Strategy
In early Summer 2020 I had a conversation with Mary Trump, Donald’s niece, and a staunch democracy defender in her own right. I asked whether her uncle would go quietly if he lost. She said no, because so long as he felt personally safe, that he was physically protected, what happened outside his bubble meant little to him. Mary was right.
From that moment this is how I saw the race: “This race won’t be over on Election Day, it will be over the moment Joe Biden takes the oath of office on January 20th, 2021.”
Fast forward four years, and Trump’s anxiety and anger have deepened. Should he lose in November, all of the things that he’s been trying to avoid for the better part of half-a-century will converge.
Right on cue, this past weekend Donald Trump released a ‘Truth’ post (he didn’t write it) informing Democrats, lawyers, donors, and political operatives that they we would suffer for our ‘skullduggery.’ Despite having admitted on a recent podcast that he lost 2020 ‘by a whisker’ Trump’s rants and threats continue apace.
As journalist Abigail Tracy reminded me during our conversation on the Home Front Podcast, these efforts to create distrust, cause dissension, and sow division, are all part of a broader strategy by Trump and his campaign, his supporters, and front-group fascists propping him up.
Past is Prologue
In 2016, Trump claimed he could only lose if the election was stolen from him. This was at a time when no one (including Trump himself) thought there was any world in which he’d win.
He did win, though, and more important for him, was that he suffered no sanction for claiming election theft, non-citizens voting, or inciting violence against his political opponents. MAGA understood this dynamic and strengthened its anti-democractic infrastructure to call into question not just elections, but democracy itself.
Ahead of 2020, Trump called out the use of mail-in or absentee ballots as voter fraud. He said that millions of undocumented immigrants had been imported and would vote illegally. During the first debate of that year, he told the Proud Boys to “stand back, and stand by.”
They did.
As Covid raged (the Brookings Institution estimates Trump’s incompetence killed 750,000 Americans) Trump’s campaign team knew the only way for him to win was to have another low turnout election, like 2016, that would depress or scare tens of millions of voters into staying home.
Despite losing, his political team, his lawyers, and his Republican supplicants didn’t tell him to call off the charade that culminated in the January 6th coup attempt. The GOP refused to hold him to account and instead got back in line.
Different Year, Different Tactics, Same Goal
The tactics around his refusal to accept any outcome other than his victory have changed. In early 2021, they used brute force. In 2024, they’re using laws and the legal system to tie up this November’s results. In Texas, Republicans have given ‘election observers’ near carte blanche to act as they would. In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp cynically supports county election boards who will certify the results.
And though many of the organizers of January 6th are sitting in prison cells, Trump’s foghorn is designed to encourage individual MAGAs to get involved if he loses. This is perhaps a more dangerous outcome as it’s difficult for law enforcement to track ‘lone wolves.’
The whole idea, though, is not to ‘steal’ any votes, but to inject enough uncertainty into the results that Trump and his supporters can demand he be declared the victor, because who’s to say he didn’t actually win? How can we know? How can anyone?
Phases
The remainder of Campaign 2024 consists of two phases:
56 Days to Go
The pro-democracy movement has the next eight weeks to turn out so many voters for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz that no matter how much Donald Trump stamps his feet, screams into his phone, or tweets insanity, that even the Jr. MAGAs won’t put their own freedom on the line to save him.
The Moment Polls Close - January 20th, 2025
Trump’s goons and minions are preparing for the immediate period after polls close on November 5th. Federal, state, and local authorities will be on high alert as the transporting, processing, and tabulating of ballots begins. This is the “Max G” moment, in which anything that can happen, might.
The Good News!
Unlike 2020, Donald Trump is not in office. Everything he’s hoping to achieve will rely on others to carry out. He has neither the authority nor the assets of the presidency this time around.
The 2022 mid-term were critical for democracy because we elected sane, rule-of-law candidates in states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Even in Nevada, the pro-Trump Secretary of State candidate lost. These officials are already working hard, often at personal risk to themselves and their families, to ensure a free and fair election.
Election law experts like Marc Elias have attorneys fanned out across the country and are in court daily ensuring any American who wants to cast a vote is able to. Their work will take on increased importance as we approach Election Day.
Our Job
I noted above, our job, for those of us who believe the only Oval Office Donald Trump ever enters is the one in Frank Luntz’s house, that we do all we can to ensure an electoral blowout for the GOP up and down the ballot.
I am a former Republican, but my old party has abandoned any and all semblance of a party aligned with core democratic principles. The only way to ensure the American Republic in the short and long term is to reduce the GOP to ashes and start over.
Remember…
This election isn’t over on November 5th, it’s not over until Kamala Harris takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025.
News and Notes:
The latest episode of The Home Front podcast is up now! Please listen, follow, rate five stars! I’m counting on y’all to help spread the word!
Hey, Pennsylvania, The Union is headed your way this weekend! Join us!
Saturday, September 14: Lehigh Valley
Sunday, September 15: Bucks County
Monday, September 16: Pittsburgh
In a new survey out by the Jewish Democratic Coalition of America, Jewish voters are supporting Vice President Kamala Harris by an eye-popping 47 point(!) margin, 72%-25%. You can read the press release and the entire survey here.
Candidate Watch
I hope you’ll check out a few of the candidates who are in the fight for the pro-democracy movement this fall. We can break MAGA’s back, but it will take all of us. With our support, these great candidates will win their races and make a difference.
Like clockwork, here we go again. This will be the THIRD election Trump will claim is rigged. In 2016 the rigging apparently wasn't a big problem for Trump though, go figure.
He is nothing more than a cry baby, he has already set the stage to do just that and claim that it was rigged, nothing new from Trump.
Can't wait for November, and for all these to be over!
Can’t wait to celebrate Kamala's LANDSLIDE victory wearing this "Kamala removes orange stains" tee 👇 🤣
https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/votek
Hopefully start to heal as a nation as Trump and his cult further fades into oblivion.
Well stated! “Burn down the republican party and start over” perfectly reflects the state of affairs we find ourselves in. Only voting for democracy can ignite the flames of freedom. Vote Harris/Walz!!! Fear nothing.