Donald Trump is Losing (Another Election)
He's Still Electoral Poison
Many in the political world, the news-media in particular, haven’t recovered from being wrong about Donald Trump’s chances in 2016. Everything pointed toward a Hillary Clinton victory (I suspected the race would be over at 9:00 pm EASTERN.) Despite it being a close race, and Trump still losing the popular vote badly, too many people over-estimate his chances at re-election this November.
Let’s review Trump’s electoral record:
2018: Disastrous mid-term election as the House Democrats gained a net 41 seats.
2020: First incumbent to lose the White House since 1992.
2022: Republicans only retake the US House (barely) solely on the strength of New York Democrats’ inability to effectively gerrymander. No ability to see or understand the massive effect the Dobbs decision will have on the Democratic base, women and young voters. His hand-picked candidates were wiped out in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Kari Lake cost him Arizona.
These are Donald’s losses. He’s the head of the Republican Party.
Yet, the New York Times and so many otherwise competent outlets don’t want to believe that he’ll lose again. So afraid are they of 1) getting it wrong and 2) upsetting Trump so he’ll bar them from the White House Briefing Room, that after nearly a DECADE of insanity, death, and destruction, they still treat him like a normal candidate and not the raging narcissist, authoritarian-wannabe he is.
Polls, Polls, and More Polls
The polls got it wrong in 2016. They also got it wrong in 2022, but for different reasons. In ‘16 we were all victims of our confirmation bias. In 2022, MAGA and its associated front groups ran hundreds of crappy push polls and sent them to media outlets, who duly included them in their averages, and headlines, despite their shady origins.
Shock of shocks! MAGA candidates lost to otherwise normal, confident, competent Democrats (more on this later.)
What happened? Where was the dreaded ‘red wave’ we were all expecting?
It was never coming. It was all bullshit concocted by a sophisticated and well-funded political organization and pliant media willing to go along with it.
To the pollsters out there: Someone tell me why you’re doing massive surveys with registered voters when likely voters are likely to be a more accurate representation of the electorate?
Trump Hasn’t Secured His Base, Part I
Donald Trump won the Republican Primary, yes. But a former president and head of the party, with all the money he needs and 100% name ID shouldn’t be losing 10%, 15%, 20% of primary voters (the diehards) to an opponent like Nikki Haley. As I wrote earlier this year, Haley represented some version of the Old GOP that enough voters wanted back, even knowing Trump would win the nomination.
He and his campaign haven’t done much to bring those voters back to the fold. They ridiculed and insulted Haley often. In fact, Trump told Haley’s voters he didn’t want them back.
After this summer’s Presidential Debate, Trump and Company believed there was no possible way he could lose so they went even deeper into the darkness (they always do) by hosting a national political convention that would be have been at home in Nuremberg, Germany circa 1935.
The Big Switch
As I said in a podcast last week, when Trump loses in November, we’ll never be able to repay the debt of gratitude we’ll owe Joe Biden. The other side of that coin is how, even up to today, the Trump campaign was (and is) unprepared for the possibility of the president standing aside and Vice President Kamala Harris stepping up.
This is Presidential Campaign 101, folks. Even if they never believed Biden would leave, anyone with campaign experience would have had plans and ads in place ready to knock down the new Democratic nominee.
Instead, Trump and his cronies gave Vice President Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz SIX WEEKS of clean air, including throughout their own convention. It’s political malpractice, plain and simple. Trump still attacks Biden almost as often as he does Harris.
Campaigns don’t operate in vacuums. As Harris was on the rise, Trump’s insanity has increased apace. At this point, the Super Friends trifecta of Corey Lewandowski, Chris LaCivita, and Susie Wiles, have given up. They made their deal with the devil, and at this point, they’re just along for the ride.
Trump Hasn’t Secured His Base, Part II (or A Rock and a Hard Place)
Tim Walz had a great line at the Democratic Convention. He said Trump and MAGA are offering “an agenda nobody asked for,” and not many people want. Despite the unpopularity of the Dobbs decision, and its draconian red-state offspring, Trump was all-pro-life all-the-time. Until he wasn’t.
While his campaign team can’t control him, Trump’s people can read survey data. Dobbs is a cancer on Republicans’ electoral chances. His people told him he had to soften his position on the issue. He was against IVF. Now he’s for the government funding it! He was against Amendment 4 in Florida. Then he was for it. Now he’s against it again.
In the old days we’d have junior staffer in a dolphin costume following him around (sorry John Kerry and Mitt Romney.) Where’s Flipper when he need him?
This time it wasn’t the Haley/Establishment Republicans in revolt, but leaders of the pro-life movement and Evangelical pastors. They took to social media to accuse Trump of betraying the cause. They told their flocks to stay home until they could find someone pure on the issue.
It’s difficult for Trump to win without moderate Republicans. It’s IMPOSSIBLE for him to do it without the Christian right. They are his most loyal followers. They have been there through all his high crimes and poor choices. They are his get-out-the-vote operation. Without them, this isn’t a close race, it’s a blow out.
One thought: I could make the argument that many leaders of the Evangelical movement would be fine with a Trump loss. It’s always easier to raise money and keep people angry when the opposition is in charge, and they still have the Old New Confederacy and the Mountain West to terrorize.
65 Days To Victory
The momentum is with the Harris-Walz ticket. The wind is at their back. The enthusiasm and fundraising has stayed at fever pitch far longer than I thought possible. We’re only a couple of weeks away from early voting and absentee ballots going out in some states.
In the final 60 days, Trump’s behavior will only deteriorate further. His staff will be scraping up every last dime they can from the place before they prepare for self-imposed exile at whatever beach house they’ll buy themselves with his money; focused not on victory, but self-preservation. Many GOP candidates will feel this way, too.
Trump’s only chance to arrest Harris’ climb is at next week’s debate in Philadelphia. He doesn’t want to do it. His team doesn’t want to do it, but they’re left with no other choice. Unlike last time, Vice President Harris will come prepared not with a head full of facts and figures (she doesn’t need help on the policy points) but ready to spar with the Liar-In-Chief.
Donald will ramble on, lie, attack Harris for various things, and she can address the American people and say, “You really want four more years of this?” No, most of us don’t. We want politics, to the extent possible, to be boring. We’ve held on for nearly a decade of Donald Trump. Enough is enough.
On November 5th, we’ll all have the chance to tell him that.
News and Notes:
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You give me hope. All I feel is how I felt when Hillary lost and I was independent then. The nasty crap I hear at my own vfw makes me want to not go back. Veterans that fought and can't see this shit. Still holding on to the trans and gays being groomers thing. I asked a guy about that and he got angry saying that he has an opinion and sticking to it. . I asked if opinions should be based on some sort of fact and told him what I know to be true. Totally ignored me. The commander wearing a kid rock, no snowflakes t- shirt. They know I'm gay. I am the only woman at the meetings but I won't quit. They won't intimidate me. I don't know why but I keep trying. Maybe because of people like you ,Reed. Thank you.
I think you're being too kind to corporate media.
The reality is far more prosaic and damning.
The Trump presidency was a goldmine for CNN, NYT, WaPo, Politico, etc. Reporters rolled out of bed, checked Trump's Twitter account for the most outrageous claims, cut/paste, add a few paragraphs of fluff, call a few GOP Congressmen (who saw nothing, heard nothing, explained that Trump was not to be taken literally...even though he used his Twitter account to fire Cabinet members). Add a salacious headline, promote the article via Twitter for engagement and a cable hit...rinse and repeat.
Life was easy, books were plentiful.
With Biden, easy street dried up. Biden wasn't interested in tweeting or press conferences, which made reporters lives harder. So they retaliated by amplifying right-wing attack lines.
This was far easier than learning and reporting on the details of legislation designed to provide jobs, protect the economy, raise wages, support unions, etc.
The standard line was "it wasn't the media's job to sell Biden's economic plan". This is false on its face...presenting the facts of historic legislation in a comprehensive, understandable fashion is precisely their job.
This is news, regurgitating Trump tweets and repeating right-wing propaganda, without correcting the record or adding context isn't news.
This is why independent media will flourish, and corporate media will continue its slide into irrelevance.