Author’s Note: I already had this in my draft posts when I saw James Carville’s column in the New York Times calling for Democrats to embrace economic populism. More on the self-declared 81 year old below.
November 2024
Trump won? Again? How could this happen? Again… This question has plagued Democrats for 12 months. Even a year later, most analyses tend to the self-serving rather than the clear-eyed. What do voters want? Who do they want to hear from? Why don’t they like us?
November 2025
Earlier this month, Democrats had a terrific showing in off-year elections. New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, California, and Georgia showed that the party can indeed win and win big win the conditions are right. The momentum from these wins was blunted by Senate Democrats (again) folding on the shutdown. The ‘25 races did provide a tailwind and a reminder: Voters are unhappy and will take it out on whoever is in charge.
Trump is an Albatross
When Donald Trump is in office but not on the ballot, he’s a lodestone around the neck of his party. Though individual voters may not follow his antics like we do, their feeling squeezed by issues of his personal making and the insanity is osmotic: It seeps out through the Beltway and into the nation’s bloodstream.
In 2018, Democrats gained a net 40 seats in the US House of Representatives. Republican leaders and strategists know what they’re up against: They’re under no illusion about what kind of drag ‘ole wobby-legs is on their efforts. Texas’ mid-cycle redistricting didn’t occur by accident. Republicans are trying to hedge their losses.
As we saw earlier this month, Trump’s presence drove independents to Democratic candidates and causes and many Republican voters sat it out.
Generic Ballot Is Trending
Several recent surveys show Democrats’ lead in the so-called ‘generic ballot’ widening. In a Marist survey early this month, Democrats held a 14 point lead, 55-41 against the GOP. This is a yawning gap for Republicans, they know it, and will do all they can to narrow the margin between now and next November. They are desperate to maintain their control over Congress, and to keep Trump afloat (at least for a little while.) Their dirty tricks have not yet begun.
Democrats Should Retake the House
Even with their redistricting gambit, it’s difficult to see how Republicans maintain their control of the US House. The Texas maps are now in the courts and the Dems should pick up a seat in my home state of Utah! Confidence often breeds complacency. In my near six-year observation of the Democratic Party, electoral advantage also encourages do-no-harm thinking that regularly does its best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Repeat after me: When you’re ahead, win by more.
Less Carville, More Bannon
My friend Corbin Trent had this to say about Carville’s admonition in the Times:
If this time is existential, we should demonstrate our unwavering commitment to defeating Trump, MAGA and Republicans in 2026. In this instance, I prefer Steve Bannon’s stance on politics:
“When they’re on the floor, step on their necks.”
Oh, no! That’s not who we are! We’re better than that. We want to win, but only if we can do it with white gloves, dry martinis, and a PhD. The world has never worked that way, and politics hasn’t, either. We are in the midst of an anti-establishment, populist revolt. Americans have every reason to rage at their machine: For decades they’ve been lied to, while political and economic elites patted them on the head and told them, “Just wait, this rising tide will lift your boat.”
The boat has holes in it. People are bailing, not sailing on the crest of this wave.
Tone, Not Monotone
Pick anyone, any of 330 million Americans other than Hakeem Jefferies and Chuck Schumer to be the faces of the Democratic Party for the next 12 months. If their main job is fundraising, stick them on donors’ jets and pack them off to San Francisco, Jackson Hole, and Palm Beach for the year. Let them drone on endlessly over canapes but keep them away from television cameras and news desks. They are men not built for this time, nor this fight. Maybe 1997, but not 2026.
They’re quartermasters, not battlefield commanders. Their best role is stockpiling resources for the coming fight and, at last, attempting to understand and utilize the legislative calendar to some (read: any) positive effect. Their egos will drive them toward the Klieg lights. They need to stay behind the scenes.
A Big-Enough Win Isn’t Big Enough - All the Marbles
If the 2018 mid-terms were a smashing success, we must work to replicate that margin, and no less. If there are 25 ‘frontline’ seats, in which a Democrat may flip a seat, what are the next 25, and the 25 after that? It’s not enough, not nearly enough, to trade one five seat margin for another.
More than voting cards, and office plaques, though, we need to spend the next 11.5 months building the networks, campaigns, and support systems that will generate a tsunami that puts paid to Trumpism, MAGA, and their cronies. Our task is simple, if not easy: Smash Republican candidate and officeholders from coast to coast. Let no race go uncontested, let no opportunity be wasted.
On Wednesday, November 3rd, 2026, if Republicans don’t find their numbers, their movement, and their movement decimated, we haven’t done our job. We possess momentum, the motive, and the opportunity, now we must grasp them with all we have.
The Campaign Has Already Begun or, Spend Early Money
If I had $25 million dollars sitting in a campaign account (hint, hint) I’d be dumping advertising and bodies into every target Republican district in the country. If Republicans are down 14 in the generic ballot, they should be down 20 by Christmas. Anyone who tells you ‘early money doesn’t work’ either hasn’t won in a while, or possesses motives other than victory.
The GOP is down. Trump’s numbers are down. As I noted above, when your opponent is on the run, it’s not the time to watch them go. Chase them into the hills and hinterlands. Most of these men and women (Republican candidates) are not very good. Their consultants aren’t much better. Their instinct will be to hunker down and wait for September.
Our campaigns must be psychological operations as much as TV ads and mail pieces. We must not give them a moment’s peace. I don’t personally go in for the “voters aren’t paying attention” bullshit. They’re always paying attention and even more so right now as the days are shorter, the nights are colder, and their prices are higher.
Republicans on the run opens the doors for new, bold, and better ideas and ideals.
Start Planning for Day One NOW
As I wrote earlier this month, DC Democrats have trouble reading a calendar. Many of the worst things that have come to pass in the last 12 months were visible to anyone willing to review dates and deadlines. If we have a year to Election Day and 14 months to when the next Congress is sworn in, we must decide what we want January 2027 to look like and pursue it vigorously.
What are the five bills a Democratic majority will put on the floor Day One? What are the fundamental changes the party is willing to put forth as corrections to a system that has not worked for individual Americans for far too long.
Voters are willing to listen, willing to act, will to vote, but we must provide them something to join up to. What is the larger project we’re offering? What is the better tomorrow we’re envisioning together?
Author’s Note: If anyone tells you, “We can’t go too big, we don’t want to get in the way of the 2028 field,” fire them immediately. Successful political parties are built on principles that are intended to survive from one election, and one leader to the next. Expecting a Messiah to appear from the frozen tundra of Iowa is wooden-headed and weak.
The Wind is at Our Backs
Okay, team. The ship is rigged, the crew is ready, the wind is freshening. Will we take advantage of the conditions and sail the Good Ship America into a better future, or as we have too many times, stay in port and hope the winds die down.
Let’s heed the words of John Shedd: “A ship in harbor is safe, but that’s not what ships are built for.”
News and Notes:
Read Corbin’s entire post below.
this right here: Author’s Note: If anyone tells you, “We can’t go too big, we don’t want to get in the way of the 2028 field,” fire them immediately.
That is one of the biggest barriers to become a party of the people.
Fucking A. The GOP goes after every opportunity like a jalopy on fire, driven by Satan, with no brakes. No concern about the next chess move. Dems need to adopt that spirit of winning every fucking game and running up the score each time. Fuck 2028. No one knows what will happen tomorrow morning, forget ‘28.