Bobby and Donald, A Match Made in Hell

RFK is supposed spoil Joe Biden's re-election chances. It won't work out that way.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. with well-known good guys Michael Flynn and Roger Stone (both felons pardoned by Donald Trump.)

Now that No Labels’ threat to democracy has left the stage, it’s time to turn our attention to the next spoiler-in-waiting, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Bobby Kennedy is supposed to be a stalking horse for Donald Trump, taking enough votes away from Joe Biden in key states to allow the golden heifer to return to the White House. Add RFK to the list of Jill Stein, Cornwell West, the Russians, the Saudis, and anyone else who needs Trump’s return.

Next, current polling would indicate Kennedy’s addition to the race does indeed hurt Biden’s reelection chances. According to Decision Desk’s compilation of more than 100 surveys, Kennedy takes about 8% of the vote right now, leaving Trump in the lead and Biden more than a point behind.

Courtesy, The Hill

Note: All these polls have different methodologies so it’s not always apples to apples. Kennedy approaching 10% is statistically significant at this point.

The conventional wisdom around Bobby is that he’s a ‘new face’ despite being 70 years old and scion of American political royalty. His name is famous enough to provide a name ID lift to a man few people know much about otherwise. His work on environmental issues has Democrats concerned that younger voters may leave Biden.

There’s nothing conventional about American politics today.

Before we talk about why Bobby is a bigger threat to Trump, it’s important to understand why he’s running.

At some point a while ago, Bobby Kennedy saw Donald Trump win the presidency, and thought to himself, “If he can do it, I can, too.” After all, like Kennedy, Trump had no prior political experience, was the son of a successful and prominent man, and had a public and checkered personal life.

Much like Trump, Kennedy also has, at best, a tenuous hold on both reality and the truth. In multiple interviews, he’s made outlandish statements only to later deny having made them in the first place.

There’s a name for this condition: Often wrong, never in doubt.

Both men possess the demagogue’s “I am THE ONE” type of narcissism. Trump had “I alone can fix it.” Bobby will come up with something similar in the coming weeks and months; he’s the only one who can repair a broken political system, or he’ll get all the Bill Gates out of your brain; promises no one can keep.

When Kennedy’s personal attributes are mixed with rage against the establishment and the ability to convince his fans he’s telling ‘the truth,’ a segment of voters will cleave from Trump; people he cannot afford to lose.

Bobby is in good stead with the Marin County Moms and the FU White Guys. These voters used to span from progressive to Republican but now go looking for anyone who doesn’t tell them they’re crazy. They’re upset and angry and the world, and they want a leader who displays that, too.

Many of these voters, the anti-establishmentarians, probably voted for Trump in 2016. Perhaps they did in 2020, too. Trump is now part of the establishment. He’s old, tired, and incompetent. The FU White Guys are largely successful suburban dads; they’ve had a bellyful of Trump and his antics but want nothing to do with Biden.

Who scratches their itch? Enter Kennedy.

He’s been a frequent guest on Fox News and feted by fetid House Republicans looking to make President Biden look bad. The wingers have seen Kennedy, and as they see more of him, they’ll start to reconsider their support for Donald Trump.

Conspiracy theories for these people are catnip. Whether it’s the Jews and the Chinese who conspired to unleash Covid on the world (that according to RFK they’re immune to,) vaccines, IVF, January 6th rioters*, 5G cell signals, you name the weirdness, these folks are into it. More of them either identify or vote as Republicans by a long shot. Kennedy isn’t just willing to indulge these fantasies, he actively promotes them.

*Kennedy’s campaign sent out an email calling January 6th insurrectionists “activists.” They claimed it was a mistake but the online gremlins will surely pick it up and run with it.

Vaccines are the number one issue that will drive these voters away from Trump and toward Kennedy. RFK has long been a proponent of the (long debunked) theory that vaccines cause autism. His ‘running mate’ Nicole Shanahan believes this, too.

Trump, on the other hand, is vaxxed to the gills. He takes pride in Operation Warp Speed, and before he started getting booed at rallies, encouraged his audiences to get the Covid booster. These lost voters know that about Trump, and it’s only a matter of time before the trolls in RFK-land start reminding people of it.

The main ‘issues’ of the Kennedy campaign are those of the new right and MAGA, not moderate voters. They strike against both reality and how most Democrats, Independents, and a healthy number of non-Trump Republicans see the world. Calling Biden a ‘bigger threat to democracy than Trump’ isn’t likely to endear RFK to mainline Democrats.

This will feed Trump’s innate paranoia. Even if his team has convinced him that Kennedy is there to help him, Trump won’t buy it. Why? Because he can’t imagine ever doing something like that for someone else. Trump’s brain can’t compute more than binary code; a third option like Kennedy will seem like a threat to the Lizard King. In this case, he’s right.

Two things will happen as we get closer to the summer. First, at some point Kennedy-Shanahan ticket may pick up Secret Service protection. This is a big deal for a campaign. Suddenly, RFK is being shuttled around in motorcades, on and off airplanes, and men and women with guns are sworn to protect him. This is heady stuff for a candidate. It gives the campaign an air of legitimacy. By the time the Trump people tell Bobby to back down, he’ll be inside ‘the bubble’ and won’t want to stop.

Right about then, someone in Trump’s orbit (Lewandowski, Manafort, they’re getting the band back together) will convince him that Kennedy is indeed a threat that must be accounted for. The Donald will demand his team begin attacking RFK with all they have. The Truth Social posts will fly, hot and heavy, with details of both Kennedy’s and Shanahan’s personal lives. He can’t help himself.

Trump’s mindset will transition from “he’s here to help me” to that famous line at the end of Casino, “Why take the chance?”

While Trump does this, the RFK-curious voters will start to make their choices. The first step will be moving away from Trump. This is the most important part for democracy. Because once they’ve moved away from DJT, even if they ultimately don’t vote for RFK, it will be yet another vote Trump can’t afford to lose.

As I’ve written before, Trump’s coalition is smaller, older, whiter, more male, and more extreme than it was four or eight years ago. He can’t afford to lose anyone. RFK’s candidacy is tailor-made to give disaffected MAGA Republicans something they want: An off-ramp away from Trump they can feel good about.

Let the games begin.

News and Notes:

Please check out my latest conversation with Ken Harbaugh, on the threat of extremists targeting veterans for radicalization. His new movie, Against All Enemies, is available now on AppleTV+. The film is excellent, I hope you’ll give it a watch.