Last weekend I watched All The President’s Men with my 15 year old. The 1970s backdrop fascinated her. Ringing desk phones, typewriters, old cars were all amusing. “Why are they all old white guys,” she asked when seeing the Post’s editorial meeting 1972.
Most impactful, though, was her lack of shock, surprise or outrage about what Richard Nixon, his top aides, and the “Plumbers” had done. In the context of her life and experience, Nixonian transgressions are downright quaint compared to Trumpian crimes: Committed out in the open, admitted to by the president and lustily approved of by 35% of the country.
Occupy Washington First, The Country Next?
In my recent Substack Live with Miles Taylor we discussed the unprecedented nature of a sitting president deploying National Guard troops and federal officers into an American city without an active emergency.
All cities have crime, that is endemic to urban life throughout history. Trump used the country’s disdain for, or ignorance of daily life in the Nation’s Capital to declare an emergency and put boots in the streets.
Who, what, and where are next? Last summer I participated in exercises organized by the Brennan Center for Justice examining what another Trump term would look like. Yes, the Guard was available. Yes, Trump might try and utilize the military. What most concerned me (and still concerns) is this: The US Marshal’s Service can deputize anyone one they want, anytime they want (as they regularly do with state and local law enforcement.)
What, though, if Trump and Co. deputize militias? The Proud Boys? The 3%ers? He could do all those things with a tweet. Many of them are already heavily armed, and America is the most up-gunned country on Earth.
Read my post from last summer on what we learned (and how much it lines up with what we’re seeing.)
“Nobody Gives A Shit”
As Woodward and Bernstein moved closer to putting Watergate inside the White House, their sources warned them that ‘everyone is involved’ and that people’s lives were in danger. Jason Robards, masterful throughout as Post editor in chief Ben Bradlee, reminds them that most people don’t know what Nixon is up to.
“You see the results of the latest Gallup poll? Half the country never even heard of the word ‘Watergate.’ Nobody gives a shit.”
America writ-large didn’t care about Watergate, at that moment, but enough Republicans in Congress believed Nixon was no longer capable of governing and told him it was time to go. There is no Howard Baker* in today’s GOP.
*Author’s Note: I had the opportunity to meet then-Ambassador Baker and his wife, former Kansas Senator Nancy Kassebaum Baker in 2002 when I went to Tokyo, Japan on an advance for President Bush. They were gracious, kind, and funny. We should look to them more often.
Americans today, are less convinced by what they’re hearing and seeing from Democrats and the mainstream media than perhaps they were 50 years ago. A survey conducted last week by Blue Rose Research found that few, if any voters care about what Trump is doing. Take this example:
“Trump is manufacturing a D.C. crime crisis and improperly using D.C. police. Amid mounting scandals and collapsing approval ratings thanks to his price-hiking policies, Trump is using the specter of crime to distract from his historic unpopularity and toxic agenda, even though violent crime in DC hit a 30-year low last year.”
Per the polling memo, this message fell in the 8th percentile of statements tested.
Verdict: People are more likely to believe an asteroid is about to hit the Earth and they’d probably be more supportive of that event.
A Nation of Boiling Frogs
The troops in Washington, DC aren’t posted in the capital’s toughest neighborhoods, they’re deployed where affluent residents and tourists can see and feel their presence. The effects are already being felt, as restaurants report fewer people dining out.
The 10 largest American cities (within their limits) have about 27 million residents; less than 10% of the population. That number skyrockets when you include all cities and their suburban/metro areas to nearly 80%.
But…That means the vast majority of Americans do not live in the areas that Trump is calling out of control and unsafe. They’re being served brief, curated clips on YouTube, and many of them are inclined to believe that cities like Chicago and Los Angeles are crime-ridden hellholes.
They’re not (largely,) but that’s not the point.
See, Something? Say, Something? No, Thanks.
There is a Russian proverb, “Words are silver. Silence is golden.” Given they’ve been putting this into practice from the time of Ivan the Terrible up to Putin the Impaler, they’ve learned it’s best to keep your mouth shut when the security services are nearby.
Today, with the help of CCTV, cell phone footage, Palantir, and social media, nothing is secret, and few words go unheard. Though the Trump Administration is targeting the largest, most diverse and Democratic areas first, that doesn’t mean he won’t expand the scope of the ‘emergency’ beyond the city limits.
As Miles noted in our talk, this is the ‘setting the table’ phase. Whether Trump understands that, or it’s his intention, the practical effect is the same: If folks don’t believe something bad is happening until it shows up on their doorstep, it’s all the better if the regime has already convinced you to stay inside, close the blinds, and not get involved.
History Echoes, Human Nature Remains the Same
Donald Trump’s actions are not new. They’re not even new in the United States. Trump fills our telescreens all day, everyday, and those of us Cassandras are drawn like moths to the flame. We can’t look away. We won’t accept it. We must tell our fellow Americans how dangerous this is.
And while we might hope that we'd have been brave enough to assist the Underground Railroad, to stand up to Hitler/Stalin/Mao/Franco, or get in the car with Chaney, Goodman, and Schwerner, that’s not how most humans, or humanity tend to act.
Call it ‘fight or flight.’
Self-preservation, often referred to as the survival instinct, is the inherent tendency of living organisms to take actions that enhance their chances of survival while minimizing potential harm. This instinct manifests in various ways, such as seeking food to satisfy hunger, escaping from dangers, or avoiding threats. The survival instinct is foundational to many behavioral traits observed across species, including humans, where it historically influenced responses to hazards through mechanisms like the fight-or-flight reaction.
We’re not just up against Donald Trump, or MAGA, or the incompetence and compliance of those around him. We’re up against human nature. The desire for stability, normalcy and safety are far, far stronger than all our Substack posts and YouTube videos combined.
Everyone is Involved
As of this writing, the governors of Ohio, West Virginia, and South Carolina have agreed to send members of their own Guard units to Washington, DC. More will follow in their wake. Their actions are not in the best interests of their state, their citizens, or the country.
Their actions are a campaign stunt. These governors, and those to follow, want the feather in their pointed caps. “When the time came, Governor Franco heeded Trump’s call and sent troops to Washington to crack down on the lawlessness in Democrat cities…”
This isn’t new for Republicans, it’s just the latest capitulation. It won’t be the last.
The Long Run
As I’ve written before, it took us a long, long time to come to this place in America. The journey forward will be longer still. There will be more frustrating days than happy ones in the near term. The horizon is hazy, though, and for we happy few, our only job is to put the Constitution on our back and march ahead.
These times aren’t for the faint of heart. The work is not for the faint of heart. The path isn’t a straight line. We’re using an atlas with no maps. That’s okay. We’ll draw our own.
News and Notes:
Upcoming Substack Lives!
Thursday, August 21st at 11 am Eastern with Mike Brock!
Friday, August 22nd, at 1 pm Eastern with Jessica Yellin! Link here.
Check out my latest interviews!
I talked economics with Axios finance reporter Madison Mills.
And I talk MAGA and the Tech Overlords with Tina Nguyen of The Verge.
One of my aunt's friends had a twist on your proverb.
"Sometimes silence isn't golden," she used to say. "Sometimes, it's just yellow."
Reed, I think your daughter's question, "Why are they all old white guys", is so telling. Back in those time--and I was old enough to know what I was seeing--I would not have questioned that. Her question is a reminder that we made progress over these last 50 odd years. Now we must fight to hold on to democracy and continue to improve on liberty and justice for ALL. Thanks for all you do in keeping us focus on what we are facing. Take care.